TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Obama endorse Mamdani?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c26,423$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c13,249$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.967521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes17c5,810$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.663630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed Yes11c4,149$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee3b…e73bbacked Yes43c2,550$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34da…4656backed Yes40c2,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-82.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b7d…79cebacked Yes2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes6c1,980$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.52638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes14c1,974$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.493225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,588$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8249411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No73c1,536$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.244734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes15c1,450$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x645c…9325backed No62c1,258$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed Yes18c1,196$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes19c1,150$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9221033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f4…c3c5backed No61c1,146$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes1c1,133$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.622231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes3c1,101$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-63.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes13c1,093$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.01333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No71c1,074$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.0627222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1742…38e9backed No72c1,073$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c936.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c922.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes22c839.18$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.452924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes18c788.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.73125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c785.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes27c778.64$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.681464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes17c770.58$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5d…5244backed Yes67c749.95$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d27…7cf5backed No58c729.41$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes6c652$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.783026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes22c587.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.285642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes22c579.73$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes18c562$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.16263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes29c500.09$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes19c499.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-79.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes7c497$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5515445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd74…6425backed Yes6c487.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x195b…f993backed Yes43c469.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes23c436.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes7c433.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9931434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a25…099dbacked No68c421.76$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb8…37b6backed No73c413.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes9c413.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1819643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes15c399.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611010%1 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick35cpaid-84.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No61c398.33$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.221250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd9c…7a3bbacked Yes52c383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2279…d2f8backed Yes19c368.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c359.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.034131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c357.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.054520%9 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No61c334.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.452245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes24c297.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.812755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c288.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9844935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No78c287.51$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc5…247cbacked Yes29c287.45$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes27c248$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.961435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd540…b2febacked No54c240.44$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes52c238.26$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.331838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No69c218.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes15c208$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.256235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes26c204.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.551241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed No61c199.72$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No57c196.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.452927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes29c194$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.262429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes24c186.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes10c185$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.676841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No58c172.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes29c170.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No78c166.06$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No71c164.21$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…f0afbacked No62c164.02$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No51c161.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No66c151.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes11c139.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.372240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4b…5724backed Yes41c134.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17bd…7afcbacked Yes15c130.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c117.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.661127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No56c114.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.382070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes10c113.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ca…b890backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa791…bf23backed No59c109.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes13c104.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.982755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdacb…72f8backed Yes11c104.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No78c102.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.48977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9a…eefdbacked Yes11c101.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceef…ec6dbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No53c99.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d5…a0e1backed Yes21c95.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0a…c642backed No69c95.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes18c93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…db98backed Yes47c93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No58c89.4$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes44c89.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.341844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.