Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec90e8481cf64b3ca1bf6c93b3f6dc8635b7e5fb192a073d8757fe97f0e9c789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 64c | 2,479$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.31 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…2690backed Yes | 35c | 1,180$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 17c | 1,092$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 33c | 1,071$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.26 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,068$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.23 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 72c | 628.13$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 563.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…06f1backed Yes | 41c | 489.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 37c | 450$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 28c | 399.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 64c | 264$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951d…f79fbacked Yes | 10c | 244.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 24c | 218.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…7fe0backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 78c | 142.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a350backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 57c | 131.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…e1bebacked Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…7344backed No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 67.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed No | 77c | 65.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 36c | 55.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 62c | 52.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 64c | 51.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…05bebacked No | 70c | 45.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…7570backed Yes | 34c | 41.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…53bdbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdc…eb70backed Yes | 39c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…ef3ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…6551backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…9c74backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…cba4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.