Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9973fb839f315ac4d046edc91b73e827cff7b298efe12488eba2d816ac257729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $891,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $842,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 50,538$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 30,346$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.6 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 14c | 28,587$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.4 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 12c | 23,380$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.36 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 15c | 22,937$3,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 21,411$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 1c | 17,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 11c | 14,561$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.38 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 1c | 13,581$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 13,510$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.66 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 19c | 11,140$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.41 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 13c | 10,679$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 10c | 10,296$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.65 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 12c | 10,200$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 7c | 10,115$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.45 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 11c | 9,404$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 22c | 8,641$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 8,509$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 15c | 8,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 4c | 7,908$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.41 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 7,119$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 12c | 7,104$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.58 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 15c | 7,030$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.8 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 22c | 6,933$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 6,171$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 5,998$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.54 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…71e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,463$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 4,302$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 16c | 4,092$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 10c | 3,724$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 15c | 3,610$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.4 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,228$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,098$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,067$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,000$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…5ccebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 25c | 2,974$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 18c | 2,945$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.05 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,895$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.73 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 17c | 2,811$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c8…9be5backed Yes | 13c | 2,679$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,648$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.57 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,628$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.96 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 14c | 2,528$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.72 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 1c | 2,426$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 11c | 2,419$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,931$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.96 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,901$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.16 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,888$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.18 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,750$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,674$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 14c | 1,472$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 10c | 1,455$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…8cadbacked Yes | 16c | 1,175$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,080$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,078$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 14c | 899.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 21c | 849.77$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…8931backed Yes | 12c | 808.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 3c | 807.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42db…82ddbacked Yes | 17c | 805.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…ca63backed Yes | 16c | 774$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 13c | 723.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 647.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 636.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…ce23backed Yes | 11c | 622.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…1f3ebacked No | 78c | 609.81$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…e6c6backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…387cbacked Yes | 18c | 553.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…6a8abacked Yes | 8c | 543.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes | 8c | 513.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 12c | 510$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 14c | 504.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 14c | 482.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 20c | 471.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 15c | 458.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 7c | 420$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 8c | 420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed Yes | 7c | 410$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed Yes | 5c | 383.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 19c | 377.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…1cb7backed Yes | 12c | 353.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…8b84backed Yes | 17c | 351.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa606…420fbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 294.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 287.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.