Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374e4c81c03c006fbbe31dbe170e955e07dde0e11264238fbf034a0c698538da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes | 80c | 18,243$14,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 36c | 7,798$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.91 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 27c | 7,295$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.88 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 30c | 6,498$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.77 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 54c | 5,725$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.54 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 22c | 5,690$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.71 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 13c | 5,637$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.1 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 70c | 4,079$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.96 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked No | 50c | 3,500$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.88 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 71c | 3,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 40c | 2,748$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 58c | 2,038$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.18 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 14c | 1,791$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 34c | 1,783$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.65 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked No | 27c | 1,427$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.66 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 24c | 1,302$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.13 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 52c | 1,156$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…e29bbacked No | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…128fbacked No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked Yes | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7694…2b66backed No | 26c | 932.06$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed No | 44c | 900$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 51c | 800$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…d54ebacked No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 11c | 699.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…b515backed No | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 63c | 633.33$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.33 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 45c | 631.9$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…5b01backed No | 47c | 603.19$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…f538backed Yes | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 510.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…1342backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…2541backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 474$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked No | 20c | 440$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…204ebacked No | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 52c | 332.56$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…ebe9backed Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…ac00backed Yes | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 63c | 230.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 69c | 209.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…a4cdbacked No | 33c | 143.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 60c | 111$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed No | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…9d3bbacked No | 31c | 58.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 73c | 50.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…f9c2backed Yes | 63c | 49.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes | 76c | 42.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…2330backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…8ac2backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…40c1backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…f655backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.