TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x495e…ad10backed Yes1c26,837$279 inLost-$278.95120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…9165backed Yes2c24,594$449 inLost-$44960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c15,006$20 inLost-$20.022290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bd…0aa4backed Yes0c11,523$39 inLost-$39220%0 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c9,944$32 inLost-$32.4270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes2c7,562$172 inLost-$172.391198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5548…2a59backed Yes1c5,556$55 inLost-$55120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes0c5,236$25 inLost-$25.346311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e1…7a0abacked Yes1c4,756$41 inLost-$41.42110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes0c3,538$15 inLost-$15140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1d…555fbacked Yes0c3,300$13 inLost-$13.2140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c3,203$11 inLost-$11.05510%0 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes3c3,097$81 inLost-$80.7355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,647$27 inLost-$27.031,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aff…7b63backed Yes2c1,047$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes2c1,014$17 inLost-$17422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cd…4620backed Yes2c899.98$17 inLost-$17.1195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.