TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$598,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$582,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes0c49,997$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0712025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…9165backed Yes4c32,164$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes5c26,851$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.422216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes2c15,867$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes2c13,340$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes6c12,893$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.9812431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes14c11,138$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,720$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes1c10,678$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202313%3 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes3c6,881$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,802$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.141,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1d…555fbacked Yes4c5,675$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.42140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked No76c5,466$4,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.781478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c5,237$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.91333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes24c5,227$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.8155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes2c5,155$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes31c5,000$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.71933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4abf…f495backed Yes2c4,195$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9574backed Yes45c4,010$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked No62c3,960$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.33148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked No51c3,936$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.371643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes9c3,267$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0111554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes6c3,170$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.197423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No78c3,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes15c3,000$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44415023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No76c2,399$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.721283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes33c2,395$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes3c2,007$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.58540%34 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd3…359abacked Yes11c1,990$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f23…bfe3backed Yes11c1,961$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.05425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes2c1,943$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes23c1,904$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.616527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes40c1,851$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7357139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed Yes19c1,828$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.755761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No57c1,747$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.429054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd7d…4d56backed No51c1,686$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73aa…cbd6backed No69c1,640$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No73c1,600$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.085662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes1c1,579$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes3c1,537$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12492%1 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked No70c1,400$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4204143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No77c1,266$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.152085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c1,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed Yes7c1,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.433020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes2c940.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes27c920.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes44c862.66$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes47c851.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.082763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06c0…5615backed Yes3c799.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505d…7d62backed Yes2c707.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57439.3%4 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked No51c686.27$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.273250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d4…6575backed Yes10c596.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733c…2bb2backed Yes2c549$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b89…5651backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5131…2541backed Yes11c499.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-64.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No59c420$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.24273.8%31 W · 11 L+13.6wins+0.32per pick41cpaid+109.3%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes18c408.94$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ea…4815backed Yes45c399.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd099…60edbacked Yes27c398.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe21b…37edbacked Yes7c365.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67e2…1346backed Yes4c293$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ea…60c2backed Yes32c286.76$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.764153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No70c270.59$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1815754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked Yes40c250.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a0…9217backed Yes44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No55c232.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.475545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf095…3ad0backed No54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.411658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes44c178.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.432123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes35c168.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5930531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7341…0cd0backed No72c166.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f5…ef1fbacked Yes7c148.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x591f…5610backed No74c134.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.231758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec0…40dabacked No57c125$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.751040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce1…2be6backed Yes11c116.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Yes27c110.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed No53c103.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.77966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+87.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4090…57cbbacked No73c102.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.741070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd026…1245backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70fb…9ce2backed No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf211…649abacked No53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes33c66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.487121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes25c59.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-54.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…6b77backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…c1a5backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b3…310ebacked No47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a8…3c82backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1835…f45dbacked No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3f…6f3dbacked No62c31.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6def…7096backed Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-84.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.