TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$342,339
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$380,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,339 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0708…a9a6backed No25c19,619$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes60c13,236$7,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,243.2587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No7c10,704$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9e0…7586backed No45c10,615$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes65c9,066$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,185.1763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64e…2143backed Yes57c8,174$4,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,491.711145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No8c6,515$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed No16c5,406$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7004450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.994151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No59c4,234$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c3…d4b9backed Yes62c4,025$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes45c3,958$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.617018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No14c3,679$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.5412736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc822…3045backed No55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6501323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed No58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7401233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked No32c3,000$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9703732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No32c2,888$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.529054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No21c2,879$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7212431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No39c2,623$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.815023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed Yes51c2,615$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.265761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc55e…73d7backed No46c2,552$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0dd1backed No48c2,104$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd27b…e29bbacked No54c1,866$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed No50c1,705$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.552850%14 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No13c1,637$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.957219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No32c1,572$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c1,510$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe779…87e0backed No51c1,500$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.861163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+58.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2259824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No24c1,447$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.9255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed No14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No12c1,189$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No5c1,116$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.85747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No37c1,045$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.652520%5 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No15c1,002$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed No47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb07f…8fd3backed Yes55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked No61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6104667.4%31 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3906950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x247e…128fbacked No56c999.88$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.931942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No57c999.12$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7694…2b66backed Yes77c868.01$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.951936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63be…2c64backed No59c849.15$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick42cpaid-82.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes47c848.94$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9434848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No11c844.44$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No54c842.59$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4553740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d4…9dafbacked No50c821$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.52015%3 W · 17 L-6.0wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-74.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes61c744.03$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.327423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked No14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd0…a0a1backed No36c650$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2344763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3810315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…186bbacked Yes39c605.15$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9f…5b01backed No61c601.64$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes80c593.54$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4616761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb12e…2408backed Yes74c540.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.541250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Yes47c480$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.41729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ef…31a0backed Yes44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.551020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b19…50b7backed Yes56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No33c443.21$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.866527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked No12c429.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.267540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f9…1b5cbacked No66c426.92$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ea…4815backed No53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2123119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dcb…324dbacked No63c396.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x387f…158abacked No43c390$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.21450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No5c367.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.441717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No49c360$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.211658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes74c342.46$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.055955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4a0…590dbacked No57c323.73$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-68.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf87…2955backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+138.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe731…134fbacked No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a4…42e1backed No15c299.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb2…b265backed Yes51c290$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.12045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc173…b6e5backed No24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes48c240$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.14827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes42c227.51$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.952718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked Yes56c215.89$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.896564.6%42 W · 23 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ae…eed2backed Yes50c200.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.531127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8230…9074backed Yes45c188.89$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.891435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ca…3a5dbacked No18c187.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f6…75c7backed No55c179.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+69.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa628…1943backed No44c173.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ee…7bffbacked No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf0…e09fbacked Yes48c167.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.081216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7c1…4268backed No9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…7336backed Yes53c157.28$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.52536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46de…efb0backed No53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd46…58a6backed No53c149.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab6…8900backed Yes77c147.08$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.