Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6f231272950c218f16b7b1aee9df4dd3e585c6d3dbff04f9ce91aeb02d1303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x795c…2093backed No | 35c | 28,437$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 66c | 15,913$10,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,429.82 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 71c | 9,851$6,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.05 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 76c | 9,580$7,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 22c | 3,563$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.23 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 74c | 2,281$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.54 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 59c | 1,650$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.55 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 1,619$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.59 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed No | 24c | 1,400$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…17bfbacked No | 26c | 1,155$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.43 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 24c | 700$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…0138backed No | 24c | 550$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…6194backed No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked No | 22c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…2decbacked Yes | 79c | 128.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…5613backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…7e4fbacked No | 28c | 99.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 69c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…1ea0backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…776dbacked Yes | 73c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4300 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.