Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ee5637b76236ee5bf564b4e2b2441f0adada8c3fcf4b0b0d297a68d037f8c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $541,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 47,068$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.85 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 32,823$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.09 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 5c | 26,405$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.53 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 18,342$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 17,229$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.09 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 2c | 15,351$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.04 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 12,617$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.08 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 5c | 10,139$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.95 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,695$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 3c | 7,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.75 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 7,480$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 7,456$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 5,409$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,007$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,174$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 4,020$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 2c | 3,433$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,841$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 2,670$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,623$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,610$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 2,535$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,218$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 2c | 1,750$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 6c | 1,746$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,645$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…db3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,524$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 1,444$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,302$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 4c | 1,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 5c | 945.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 824.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 3c | 768$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 3c | 751.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cc…3889backed Yes | 3c | 667.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 3c | 666.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 634.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…72ecbacked Yes | 5c | 615.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…2b0ebacked Yes | 3c | 613$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 599.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 4c | 537.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c41…c1d9backed Yes | 3c | 499$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 4c | 484.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 3c | 476.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 5c | 443.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…783cbacked Yes | 3c | 440$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…d6dcbacked Yes | 3c | 386$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 4c | 345.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ac00backed Yes | 4c | 331$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed Yes | 4c | 289.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…2d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.