Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b2438bfb27f8b8f54db7e38cc37f86b77ee558140c32360226970366131fb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 20,142$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 12,937$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 3c | 11,167$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.24 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…7464backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 10,259$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,003$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,281$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,719$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 4c | 6,063$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 0c | 5,555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 3c | 5,335$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 3c | 4,079$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 3,111$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 4c | 3,043$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 0c | 3,006$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,996$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…14eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,910$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 3c | 2,794$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,481$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,454$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 2,068$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 3c | 1,950$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…c1a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,691$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 3c | 1,262$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…5d93backed Yes | 4c | 1,140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 3c | 913.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 4c | 832.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 733.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 2c | 679.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 6c | 659.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 5c | 653.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 4c | 649.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 3c | 634.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 5c | 613.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…ca90backed Yes | 3c | 494$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…cccfbacked Yes | 4c | 423.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 6c | 326.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b3…4fcdbacked Yes | 3c | 309.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.