Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval >45% on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc63b6964beb211e9496dfeb299a5c14f30399af3f1dd5f2fbee3dc39f12322f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 5,954$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145.66 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 37c | 3,407$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.82 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 49c | 3,311$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.75 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 3,011$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.61 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 47c | 1,489$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.46 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed No | 33c | 1,401$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 30c | 1,366$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 15c | 824.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 44c | 817$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 64c | 780.92$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.65 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 54c | 746.03$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 50c | 736.1$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.45 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 60c | 661.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 50c | 654.36$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.51 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 52c | 623$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 576.64$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 29c | 564.71$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.86 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 530.7$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.67 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 484.3$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 69c | 425.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 69c | 336.33$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 62c | 320.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 41c | 301.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 63c | 300.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 71c | 300.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 44c | 294.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…cde2backed No | 24c | 273.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 32c | 252.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…f94bbacked Yes | 62c | 240.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 42c | 235.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 43c | 232.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 37c | 227.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 52c | 227.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 29c | 209.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…07fdbacked No | 40c | 203.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…57e0backed No | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 30c | 178$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c13…559bbacked No | 65c | 153.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…4547backed No | 25c | 150.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 68c | 147.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 143.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7e…4a5bbacked Yes | 35c | 142.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed No | 31c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed No | 31c | 131.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 37c | 129.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 27c | 128.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…80acbacked No | 38c | 120.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 59c | 111.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…8f99backed Yes | 66c | 108.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 49c | 100.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…4c0bbacked No | 28c | 100.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…3ef8backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681a…ab42backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 32c | 85.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…66d7backed No | 35c | 85.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 67c | 82.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 62c | 80.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 42c | 76.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…da58backed Yes | 69c | 72.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…b152backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…2c89backed No | 71c | 68.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 34c | 58.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 40c | 55.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…784abacked Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…c495backed No | 40c | 50.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…280dbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…e1fcbacked No | 61c | 47.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…11d3backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 29c | 44.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…1981backed No | 73c | 43.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…996bbacked Yes | 61c | 40.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed No | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked No | 50c | 36.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…de5fbacked No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked No | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 33.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.