TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump approval >45% on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c5,954$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.6669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No37c3,407$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.8219436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No49c3,311$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.7517850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c3,011$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.6199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes47c1,489$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.4632029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d41…bf90backed No33c1,401$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No30c1,366$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.523953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed No38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No15c824.27$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.12412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes44c817$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.522050%10 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No38c800$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes64c780.92$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No54c746.03$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No50c736.1$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4514742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes60c661.11$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.062737%10 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No50c654.36$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.516728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes52c623$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.972646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No38c576.64$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1923543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No29c564.71$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.86329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No38c530.7$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No32c484.3$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7318745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes69c425.7$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.676358.7%37 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12418445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes69c336.33$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.631822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes62c320.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.642944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No41c301.51$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes63c300.85$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.668169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes71c300.7$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.78433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab0…d582backed No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No44c294.49$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9810035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7397…cde2backed No24c273.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No32c252.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4418322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…f94bbacked Yes62c240.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.221464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No42c235.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No43c232.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed No37c227.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.778020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes52c227.62$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.773935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed No29c209.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.232231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2148…07fdbacked No40c203.08$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x284c…57e0backed No32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No30c178$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c13…559bbacked No65c153.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684e…4547backed No25c150.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b0…24c0backed No38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes68c147.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.932536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No21c143.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No35c142.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.713745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7e…4a5bbacked Yes35c142.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.47333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x650d…c383backed No31c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.622334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74c…1076backed Yes75c133$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5787…5a48backed No31c131.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf241…a9a8backed No37c129.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No27c128.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2736527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa206…80acbacked No38c120.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4650%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No59c111.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.066357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes72c110$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.18229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4d29…8f99backed Yes66c108.5$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes49c100.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.179641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefb6…4c0bbacked No28c100.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-46.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cf1…3ef8backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x681a…ab42backed No60c90$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No32c85.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…66d7backed No35c85.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes67c82.23$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.276572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Yes62c80.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.951020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes42c76.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3333627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6789…da58backed Yes69c72.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x788f…b152backed No39c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc70…2c89backed No71c68.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed No34c58.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+53.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes75c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.18355.4%46 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes40c55.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.468441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbf…784abacked Yes65c50.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.77977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec5…c495backed No40c50.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e7…280dbacked No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c95…e1fcbacked No61c47.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcabc…11d3backed No33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes29c44.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.777723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbc…1981backed No73c43.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes67c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.977675%57 W · 19 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1406…996bbacked Yes61c40.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-36.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.78736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed No54c36.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…6bcdbacked No50c36.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.484027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac3…de5fbacked No41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea1…65fabacked No36c36.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-47.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c33.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes66c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.286645.5%30 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9312…a285backed No63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe126…a452backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.