Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0501322240bec2031440528a687e7af96f4b899efcd20b31932f2c7cd689132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 64c | 3,241$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.91 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 58c | 1,592$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.65 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Up | 38c | 1,590$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Up | 27c | 1,427$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.03 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Up | 42c | 1,024$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.22 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…a85ebacked Up | 34c | 922.12$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Down | 60c | 679.81$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 68c | 585.23$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 64c | 434.16$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…2690backed Down | 69c | 416.37$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Down | 69c | 399.57$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Up | 43c | 352$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Up | 48c | 334.44$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Up | 37c | 279.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed Down | 59c | 249.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Down | 67c | 209.73$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Up | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Up | 37c | 170.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Down | 66c | 149.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8c…5baebacked Down | 67c | 149.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 15c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…4ba2backed Up | 29c | 103.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Up | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed Up | 34c | 74.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Up | 54c | 74.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Up | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed Up | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…9b98backed Down | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbff…3df7backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Down | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…5733backed Up | 51c | 48.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 32c | 47.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 38c | 46.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Up | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…102cbacked Down | 60c | 40.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…10e8backed Up | 49c | 38.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…57e8backed Up | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Down | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Down | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Down | 56c | 31.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 34c | 30.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Up | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Down | 65c | 26.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Up | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Down | 57c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.