TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes7c7,509$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes27c5,207$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes5c5,117$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9514724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes8c4,974$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.42729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes7c3,020$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes1c2,755$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b6…7687backed Yes4c2,715$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes5c1,774$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.566023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes21c1,684$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.03825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes13c1,662$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.293633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes22c1,288$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.361822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf83…3dacbacked Yes9c1,256$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+66.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes11c1,135$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9516651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0d…38a1backed No75c1,124$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd10…9337backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes5c979.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.982532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes6c969.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4820617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes5c967.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No73c839.99$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c776.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.818220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c761.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes2c749.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes19c739.97$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.993324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdef…010bbacked Yes22c676$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes6c672.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.69439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c618.04$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No80c608.46$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.281275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…745cbacked Yes6c607.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.452133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb251…23d7backed Yes20c594.23$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes3c563.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012611.5%3 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb39…373cbacked No76c510.65$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e74…e0a0backed Yes8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes10c473.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.413312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed Yes32c472.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5230…e16cbacked Yes8c469.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.473357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No78c399.97$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes7c390$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564b…2003backed Yes4c384.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+158.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x152a…e12dbacked Yes8c359.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x851c…6ab4backed Yes6c329.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes4c290.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4444…c4fbbacked Yes10c265.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x503f…e43cbacked Yes5c254.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c4…25bcbacked Yes7c220.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes18c220$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+95.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ba…1c1dbacked Yes8c217.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e94…8457backed Yes56c214$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes23c210.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7042…7085backed Yes10c202$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x174a…f2cebacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes37c191.06$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6920736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x909c…4458backed Yes13c189.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes21c175.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.46615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2497backed No78c175$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e7d…e0ddbacked Yes22c175$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce64…b8f5backed Yes19c165.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No65c164.15$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd88b…52f5backed Yes22c161.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.58425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf338…14f2backed Yes20c155.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.79425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed Yes9c146.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-90.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3a2…7c87backed No70c143$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307448.6%36 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0481…0954backed Yes35c130.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.63728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+109.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873a…dcadbacked No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee7…1710backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e47…f887backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459247.8%44 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4586…5215backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No40c88.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.141947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…b6b5backed No64c78.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.221040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No80c75.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.27955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153135.5%11 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+62.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7064backed Yes25c68.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…7fb5backed No71c67.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.462263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bc…8319backed No75c66.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7222…ad03backed Yes59c51.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd60c…0139backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92a…4456backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0752…a975backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac26…ff5dbacked No79c39.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7397…a1c8backed No63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.68650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b94fbacked No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8744…8f31backed No62c32.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x338e…733fbacked No79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.654100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c9…bddfbacked No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc440…2e0ebacked No76c28.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.892871.4%20 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…49edbacked No72c27.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5e…8404backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+78%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92ac…a838backed No80c24.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…8035backed No80c17.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe03…73a9backed No79c16.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca12…4313backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.