Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9482c5e1520ac51212cdf142f80f200b5d12075c8aeea72d22d7943ca8cc53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 32c | 557$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 65c | 468.13$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked No | 77c | 298.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 68c | 117.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…2a26backed Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 62c | 94.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked Yes | 37c | 80.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…0525backed Yes | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 32c | 50.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4867backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 37.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…6cbabacked Yes | 45c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 63c | 23.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?this page
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?Yes won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will another player win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.