Chess · resolved market
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf623b35c51d90fc0647e053753a92c9ac1f5263d00fcdd8ffa02ef941f49a9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 3c | 2,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed No | 1c | 1,450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,308$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 51c | 764.01$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.01 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…8fa8backed No | 38c | 555.42$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 61c | 535.11$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.13 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 72c | 529.53$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed Yes | 43c | 465.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 366.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 36c | 315.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 55c | 223.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 55c | 166.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 51c | 118.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 31c | 115.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…756dbacked Yes | 67c | 99.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…cb01backed No | 50c | 99.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…db2ebacked Yes | 63c | 83.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65d…639fbacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 41c | 61.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 37c | 58.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…2c14backed Yes | 64c | 47.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 52c | 39.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…e581backed Yes | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…e0b4backed No | 59c | 19.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?this page
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
- Will another player win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.