Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96505a585e88f24a409cb7c3bd349e5570061e1de9cbeee7e944aa5f64c9df4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 11c | 1,010$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 13c | 877.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 9c | 599.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 15c | 315.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…9887backed Yes | 17c | 225.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 216.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…276dbacked Yes | 19c | 163.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 9c | 159.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Yes | 9c | 156.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…063bbacked Yes | 18c | 156.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 19c | 144.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 22c | 142.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 9c | 133.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…2479backed Yes | 16c | 122.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…4705backed Yes | 13c | 116.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 17c | 103.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ae…f829backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…c116backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…70cabacked Yes | 13c | 81.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…2ea8backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?this page
- Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.