Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa534b42c5a55c88e8d88f9507b4f227062d995103df0809d43d975894574d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 58c | 1,250$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.66 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 34c | 1,176$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.84 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,151$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 22c | 1,030$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 69c | 888.84$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.09 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 35c | 838.92$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.62 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…e767backed Yes | 43c | 744.72$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…4705backed Yes | 42c | 608.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked No | 53c | 539.84$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 36c | 509.79$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a50…7f3abacked No | 57c | 487.64$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…8e33backed Yes | 67c | 435.23$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…02c7backed Yes | 31c | 425.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 29c | 394$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.33 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 59c | 392.16$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…70cabacked Yes | 36c | 365.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 26c | 350.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…b563backed Yes | 52c | 321.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…9887backed Yes | 40c | 313.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 43c | 308.27$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.39 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 64c | 305.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 61c | 230.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 45c | 223.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed No | 61c | 168.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 79c | 166.52$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bb…063bbacked Yes | 51c | 155.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…cf88backed Yes | 71c | 116.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 115.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 54c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 30c | 103.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 38c | 97.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…06bebacked Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…b92bbacked Yes | 48c | 84.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 81.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…7524backed No | 77c | 71.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ae…f829backed Yes | 35c | 57.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 50c | 54.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…6b8ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed Yes | 32c | 53.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…49febacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…5263backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…77c5backed Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 56c | 40.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…5961backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…f7b5backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…d637backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…7809backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…577ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 79c | 27.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…5256backed No | 67c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c812backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?this page
- Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.