Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe65bd1284984aa9185413394297953f585e3aa0f79f04ba7683a3a18f0a6232d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,229$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 37c | 1,100$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 9c | 590$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 21c | 489.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 45c | 350.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.96 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 63c | 305.14$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Yes | 11c | 299.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 9c | 277.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7f97backed Yes | 12c | 277.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 274.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…f235backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 56c | 249.62$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 57c | 246$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 25c | 216.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…9272backed Yes | 65c | 183.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 35c | 170$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 168.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 24c | 167.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c4…fc89backed Yes | 25c | 161.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…5c39backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…9bd7backed Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 56c | 142.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…e5f8backed Yes | 41c | 122.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked No | 77c | 118.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…4705backed Yes | 10c | 117.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 11c | 105.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…957dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…aad6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…276dbacked Yes | 36c | 89.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…785cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 18c | 64.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked No | 41c | 61.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…2ea8backed No | 42c | 53.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…e96cbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b8…435fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 43c | 28.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…681ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…a888backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…b3b8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?this page
- Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.