Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a6a94fb0e402278a86e5240ce94d3a323f6ef685ab170b92d7916f3c48cf61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 1c | 7,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,662$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 33c | 1,580$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 8c | 1,521$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…3e64backed Yes | 2c | 693.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +2,022.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 558.62$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.38 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…1db8backed Yes | 4c | 511.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,739.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 6c | 448.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.64 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 58c | 400$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed No | 77c | 388.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Yes | 10c | 374.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 68c | 299.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 10c | 299$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 37c | 279.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 12c | 258.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.82 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 234.89$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 218.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Yes | 6c | 210.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 7c | 184.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 8c | 183.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +179%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…ecaebacked No | 14c | 176.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 13c | 130.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 34c | 116.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 23c | 112.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 20c | 101.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +404.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332b…793fbacked No | 30c | 99.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed Yes | 76c | 92.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…57b5backed Yes | 27c | 91.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…e5f8backed No | 48c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…abf2backed No | 29c | 37.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?this page
- Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.