Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96ef5b0b0175ed86de4df291a3ddb6a739f47d191eb3125f7e52352a6b35fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 15c | 1,054$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 10c | 968.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 4c | 515.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…7562backed Yes | 39c | 508.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…681ebacked Yes | 9c | 446.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 9c | 439.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked No | 77c | 424.61$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…f235backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 14c | 348.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 12c | 221.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 74c | 220.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…b9ddbacked Yes | 54c | 202.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…9d25backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 20c | 195.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 165.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 10c | 146.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 16c | 106.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…daa9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…4705backed Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…62f4backed Yes | 12c | 85.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +179%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 34c | 84.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 19c | 56.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?this page
- Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Nov 1-8?No won
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.