Premier League · resolved market
Will Austria win the 2024 Euros?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac852aa752a3738c155231f7e6e952d440bee5387797db94e87425b05eb49c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a7f…57f6backed Yes | 5c | 28,435$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…d562backed Yes | 6c | 17,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 9,334$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…addabacked Yes | 6c | 9,013$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…b3f9backed Yes | 6c | 8,681$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…20bebacked Yes | 5c | 8,148$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…c420backed Yes | 6c | 7,316$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 1c | 6,214$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…fc55backed Yes | 1c | 5,899$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 2c | 4,499$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…dabcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,479$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Yes | 5c | 4,427$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.05 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…636bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,183$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…52b9backed Yes | 1c | 4,035$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,847$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…0456backed Yes | 1c | 3,764$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…3df3backed Yes | 1c | 3,658$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…6c5bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,618$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 5c | 2,553$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…eda7backed Yes | 1c | 2,440$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,862$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…f50cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,750$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…757bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 6c | 1,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…5297backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…b46bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,078$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…2759backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…eb17backed Yes | 5c | 958.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…a4bbbacked Yes | 5c | 930.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 6c | 898.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…deacbacked Yes | 6c | 877.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…7e46backed Yes | 6c | 862.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 4c | 840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb827…84c1backed Yes | 1c | 791.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 4c | 734.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…55bebacked Yes | 2c | 697.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +245.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8129backed Yes | 6c | 640$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…09f1backed Yes | 4c | 499.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…2952backed Yes | 6c | 404.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…0aebbacked Yes | 5c | 368.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…28debacked Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…07d4backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austria win the 2024 Euros?this page
- Will Belgium win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Denmark win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will England win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will France win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Germany win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Italy win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?Yes won
- Will Switzerland win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will another team win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.