TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,631 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe39b…acefbacked Yes6c13,489$799 inLost-$798.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked Yes2c12,587$314 inLost-$314.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,568$94 inLost-$93.71910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Yes2c5,000$115 inLost-$1153023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a0…845fbacked Yes1c4,851$29 inLost-$29.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes2c4,517$74 inLost-$73.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes0c4,337$13 inLost-$13.111225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90db…fc55backed Yes2c3,936$94 inLost-$93.72015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbf…a4bbbacked Yes1c3,723$43 inLost-$43.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5458…0456backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x282e…00f3backed Yes3c1,600$45 inLost-$456847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes3c1,471$50 inLost-$508043.8%35 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6532…e7c1backed Yes1c1,143$11 inLost-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes2c991.26$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9b…968dbacked Yes2c962.27$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1042…48f4backed Yes2c819.46$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…ba70backed Yes3c561$17 inLost-$16.832722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87f…b995backed Yes4c558.97$20 inLost-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bd…2befbacked Yes2c530$10 inLost-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dbf…790bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aa8…5fffbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f2…fab1backed Yes3c333.33$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.