Premier League · resolved market
Will Italy win the 2024 Euros?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72485d5bab346ef3b58ecc57062f04a4de01585e9720de5c09c6ecc7ed8fe07d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 5c | 15,238$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.59 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd974…e968backed Yes | 5c | 10,508$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe833…2347backed Yes | 6c | 7,301$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 5,970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…f931backed Yes | 6c | 3,400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 4c | 2,860$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 6c | 2,731$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Yes | 5c | 2,661$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…c024backed Yes | 5c | 2,170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…5b75backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,964$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb574…6804backed Yes | 5c | 1,961$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,936$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…aa01backed Yes | 5c | 1,847$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…fc55backed Yes | 5c | 1,835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…f3fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,795$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…0456backed Yes | 6c | 1,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…757bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,471$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…6217backed Yes | 3c | 1,236$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…acefbacked Yes | 4c | 1,212$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934b…932bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,123$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…f50cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…1709backed Yes | 5c | 999.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…c351backed Yes | 5c | 920$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…fd30backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…eb2ebacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 4c | 788.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes | 7c | 731.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…f62dbacked Yes | 6c | 727.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…662dbacked Yes | 4c | 681.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 4c | 560$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…938fbacked Yes | 4c | 555$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…491abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…0012backed Yes | 5c | 392.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…a89bbacked Yes | 5c | 388.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…5170backed Yes | 6c | 375$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb151…427fbacked Yes | 5c | 363.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa673…c332backed Yes | 6c | 357.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…a6c2backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…7867backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b995backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…b562backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed Yes | 5c | 283.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…72aebacked Yes | 9c | 283.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…956ebacked Yes | 6c | 267.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…954fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…5238backed Yes | 5c | 211.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d0…f728backed Yes | 5c | 211.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f329backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…ce21backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…5ff5backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0e88backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…07d4backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…6b88backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…bfb8backed Yes | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 6c | 183.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win the 2024 Euros?this page
- Will Austria win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Belgium win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Denmark win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will England win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will France win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Germany win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?Yes won
- Will Switzerland win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will another team win the 2024 Euros?No won
- Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.