TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

EU sanctions on Iran by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee3…4ca0backed No1c5,011$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Yes33c3,605$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.381225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2c…2e31backed No2c3,319$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986a…a1b6backed No77c2,657$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aaa…f8c9backed No67c2,277$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes47c1,700$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.4719639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed No2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes42c1,260$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.9547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb8…744cbacked No1c1,123$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes26c1,100$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8173644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No69c1,000$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.0520749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf53…3f0dbacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+78%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes18c999.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.993729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes15c991.65$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6615331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No17c958.97$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6510045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes33c901.98$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.1613419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No20c867.79$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes37c804.58$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed No1c731.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.172236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes29c701.87$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.0456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No61c695.91$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.7427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes34c644.17$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.5631241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6225…bc21backed Yes28c624.43$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.66728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes36c618.76$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.6216651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked No61c566.44$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3473250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No73c552.66$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aa9…d1bdbacked No73c506.47$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.421450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes4c500$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes44c499.86$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.245570.9%39 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f9c…2fd7backed No49c495.35$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes37c473.26$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0123420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes39c450$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.721921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No60c433.81$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.394645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5b…cf16backed No28c428.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No63c397.59$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.578143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes30c364.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8317646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes24c356.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.5412037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a97…24dabacked Yes56c356.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.661353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes23c339.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.081533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No67c322.7$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.392369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes32c314.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.859930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes16c310$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.520239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc04…5ee2backed Yes58c304.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No77c298.3$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0414147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed No77c284.35$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.422378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4997…2fc3backed Yes19c270.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcac4…56dbbacked Yes23c252.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.13450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+140.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No45c247.23$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.186253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd64…9502backed No6c244.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b15…da0bbacked Yes8c244.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+170.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No44c226.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.872955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No12c220.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.088135.8%29 W · 52 L+13.6wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+84.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes15c208.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4ef…0214backed Yes50c205$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed No71c204.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.57431.1%23 W · 51 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf51…0f7cbacked Yes41c184.73$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.731717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d6…f2ffbacked Yes21c180.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes25c180$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0168…ab3fbacked No13c173.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes41c164.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.886141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a2…4c90backed Yes34c161.71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes17c160.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d49…eb59backed No61c156.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes27c154.44$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.245855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes33c151.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.133063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+78.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd99…df91backed No72c150.71$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6556…ee64backed No58c150$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No65c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.511136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes27c147.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes17c141.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.785952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbfb…9762backed No75c135.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No65c134.72$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5748630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No68c125$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes75c121.54$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b06…1065backed No71c120$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.21070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee4…481fbacked No71c117.04$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…5399backed Yes37c109.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes47c105.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9121160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes48c104.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2821926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No78c103.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50ef…5e6ebacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.158219.5%16 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43c3…e06abacked Yes21c96.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa355…0af1backed No72c89.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes33c84.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.856434.4%22 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No13c83.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6315436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…5b50backed Yes55c75.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc424…ebc9backed No63c73.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes23c69.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd5…feabbacked No75c67.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.63330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes77c58.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+123.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes27c57.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.742544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ee…560dbacked Yes36c56.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.