TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$934,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $934,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa36…29f7backed No8c32,555$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3425…5698backed No11c29,918$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.111428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+175.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No10c26,653$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.742050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No10c22,204$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.252321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed No13c21,717$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.751926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No21c21,003$4,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.012941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No6c20,050$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+75.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed No10c19,553$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No9c18,646$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.42229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No15c17,722$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,712.873141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4930…d78dbacked No11c17,420$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No25c17,061$4,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,334.310150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No14c15,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.161546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1489…877dbacked No11c12,003$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b9…f457backed No15c10,402$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes72c9,388$6,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.763243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…4979backed No4c8,700$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No8c8,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed No16c6,685$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.181816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes72c6,679$4,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.323943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No10c6,668$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.953644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No26c6,568$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.641643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b29…5967backed Yes48c6,453$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,378.091070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed No58c6,200$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,576520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes79c6,057$4,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.222015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefcc…1444backed No21c6,004$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes80c5,693$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.315121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed No31c5,565$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7463729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed No7c5,550$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4041442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No24c5,234$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.3426423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5256…0494backed No12c4,989$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ca…0a6ebacked No16c4,525$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.38137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6931…8fb5backed Yes25c4,246$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,200.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes63c4,087$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.751250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21dc…3c76backed No1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes79c3,855$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.478641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes32c3,406$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed No6c3,273$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d5…1567backed No9c3,236$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes40c3,130$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.748137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf033…bc93backed No6c2,940$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd271…4cddbacked No9c2,891$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98dd…d898backed No10c2,826$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes63c2,754$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.2114724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…2128backed No76c2,619$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked No8c2,600$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…c609backed No14c2,417$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No17c2,416$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.624030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No8c2,310$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.127247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed No22c2,100$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes45c2,087$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.291747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No12c2,077$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4943…f7b4backed No7c2,018$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed No14c2,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No15c1,988$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.792050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee9b…a3e9backed No6c1,986$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef21…5aedbacked No11c1,950$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No44c1,941$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.071030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed No6c1,938$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No11c1,926$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.81764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes61c1,920$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.652050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No17c1,884$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.479831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x312e…3ecfbacked No10c1,878$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked No6c1,822$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…1227backed No13c1,819$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c0…208cbacked No9c1,702$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f1…a619backed No15c1,670$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03b…62e0backed No7c1,581$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2855…afffbacked Yes72c1,560$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.551225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c1,544$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes72c1,540$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.125158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b6c…596bbacked No13c1,500$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d2…12d5backed No15c1,472$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.77650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+81.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a6…8ae2backed No19c1,450$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.442751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4755…20fdbacked Yes71c1,394$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes73c1,379$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.262737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No17c1,367$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.942313%3 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed No8c1,304$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes50c1,284$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.537337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes36c1,180$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.295749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1714…0986backed No18c1,171$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.391010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-83.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No10c1,136$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.091457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No19c1,100$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.015028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b6c…8f71backed No6c1,091$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed No14c1,051$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.242334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No16c1,032$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes79c1,001$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6305143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes62c1,000$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3851330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d6…ab22backed No15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes60c981.02$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4116743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes79c968.13$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.313759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No19c949.9$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.241315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed No26c932.38$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.423116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes72c928.53$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.328844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes78c925.4$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.851861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f5…2e7fbacked No12c925.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c70…65abbacked No22c901.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a2…a079backed No26c876.73$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…a3f3backed No12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.