Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9490cd2121384ebb7a08b0aed1fa9a5239d98096d91b4bd6827c47c94951b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $934,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $930,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $934,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa36…29f7backed No | 8c | 32,555$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3425…5698backed No | 11c | 29,918$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 10c | 26,653$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 10c | 22,204$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed No | 13c | 21,717$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 21c | 21,003$4,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 6c | 20,050$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 10c | 19,553$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 9c | 18,646$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.42 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 15c | 17,722$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,712.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…d78dbacked No | 11c | 17,420$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 25c | 17,061$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334.3 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 14c | 15,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…877dbacked No | 11c | 12,003$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed No | 15c | 10,402$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 72c | 9,388$6,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed No | 4c | 8,700$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 8c | 8,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 16c | 6,685$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.18 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 72c | 6,679$4,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.32 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 10c | 6,668$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.95 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 26c | 6,568$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…5967backed Yes | 48c | 6,453$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,378.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 58c | 6,200$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,576 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 79c | 6,057$4,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…1444backed No | 21c | 6,004$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 80c | 5,693$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.31 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 31c | 5,565$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed No | 7c | 5,550$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 24c | 5,234$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.34 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed No | 12c | 4,989$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked No | 16c | 4,525$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…8fb5backed Yes | 25c | 4,246$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 63c | 4,087$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 79c | 3,855$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.47 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes | 32c | 3,406$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 6c | 3,273$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…1567backed No | 9c | 3,236$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 40c | 3,130$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.74 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…bc93backed No | 6c | 2,940$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…4cddbacked No | 9c | 2,891$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98dd…d898backed No | 10c | 2,826$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 63c | 2,754$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.21 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…2128backed No | 76c | 2,619$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked No | 8c | 2,600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…c609backed No | 14c | 2,417$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 17c | 2,416$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.62 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 8c | 2,310$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed No | 22c | 2,100$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 45c | 2,087$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 12c | 2,077$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…f7b4backed No | 7c | 2,018$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…8908backed No | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 15c | 1,988$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9b…a3e9backed No | 6c | 1,986$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…5aedbacked No | 11c | 1,950$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 44c | 1,941$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 6c | 1,938$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 11c | 1,926$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 61c | 1,920$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 17c | 1,884$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.47 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…3ecfbacked No | 10c | 1,878$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5dedbacked No | 6c | 1,822$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…1227backed No | 13c | 1,819$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…208cbacked No | 9c | 1,702$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed No | 15c | 1,670$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed No | 7c | 1,581$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 72c | 1,560$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 1,544$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 72c | 1,540$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.12 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…596bbacked No | 13c | 1,500$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…12d5backed No | 15c | 1,472$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 19c | 1,450$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…20fdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,394$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 73c | 1,379$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 17c | 1,367$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed No | 8c | 1,304$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,284$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.53 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 36c | 1,180$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.29 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed No | 18c | 1,171$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 10c | 1,136$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…8f71backed No | 6c | 1,091$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed No | 14c | 1,051$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 16c | 1,032$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,001$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…ab22backed No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 60c | 981.02$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.41 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 79c | 968.13$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 19c | 949.9$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed No | 26c | 932.38$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.42 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 72c | 928.53$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.32 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 78c | 925.4$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…2e7fbacked No | 12c | 925.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c70…65abbacked No | 22c | 901.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…a079backed No | 26c | 876.73$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…a3f3backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.