Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b1572c46ac9416e3d147ac34ae9312240e3946fd94d50f110aec94193f9586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 18c | 8,796$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 19c | 5,764$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 80c | 2,811$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,129$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 78c | 999$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…9bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 789.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…ea55backed Yes | 7c | 761.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 4c | 744.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 742.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Yes | 3c | 738.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…3228backed Yes | 17c | 403.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 391.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 5c | 370.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 18c | 250.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…ffe0backed Yes | 7c | 192.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 79c | 189.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed Yes | 17c | 176.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…8108backed No | 78c | 157$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Yes | 22c | 136.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 12c | 114.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 14c | 104.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 95.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…8b29backed Yes | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…3712backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…f10ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.