TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$330,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce41…fa02backed No77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes5c17,746$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.83964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes11c12,200$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3521520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes3c10,133$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.028617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes10c7,976$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.191520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes13c7,613$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.5120549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes2c7,374$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.129711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes1c6,917$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.254126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b8…66c5backed Yes9c6,354$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes25c6,060$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x807b…9030backed Yes8c5,928$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7398…d3a2backed Yes0c5,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,553$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.412078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked No73c5,282$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.141643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes20c5,012$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.993625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes9c4,689$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.984045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes14c3,947$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes16c3,532$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes19c3,073$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.316036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,068$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.761,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c2,873$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes8c2,748$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8317018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes39c2,570$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d1…5ae6backed Yes2c2,463$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x673e…eb95backed Yes2c2,169$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed No76c2,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4903729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes5c1,964$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.183836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x112d…18b9backed Yes20c1,920$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes1c1,846$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa168…b2f2backed Yes25c1,764$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.18825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes11c1,740$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes12c1,600$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.53619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes3c1,510$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406121.3%13 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes13c1,500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb3…9902backed Yes14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes18c1,410$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9720823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes11c1,341$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15117929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No56c1,340$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.22642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3f…6deabacked No75c1,339$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes14c1,321$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No77c1,279$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.156650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes16c1,248$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c1,200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2412524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeada…58d1backed Yes3c1,175$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes10c1,138$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.81838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5f…453abacked Yes18c1,131$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1d…28a6backed Yes12c1,085$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.21526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes2c1,063$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes8c1,034$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.21235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04df…642ebacked Yes10c1,019$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x953e…769bbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f5…7226backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1af7…cd2dbacked Yes2c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc84c…4b4dbacked Yes9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a74…a3cbbacked Yes24c959.05$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed No75c936.93$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.934717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd99…1781backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Yes10c900$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf775…f3b3backed Yes11c897.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9e…3d06backed Yes12c891$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.92825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc30…3ef0backed Yes12c841$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes21c805.55$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.615642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes9c801.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.149414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba7…fea3backed Yes25c793.64$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.411838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+100.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes1c769.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f9…b711backed Yes21c756.78$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No72c734.99$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes28c723.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a9…a313backed Yes1c708.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146a…9f4abacked Yes9c677$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes9c659.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f2…566dbacked Yes3c653.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26be…f59cbacked Yes11c635.64$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2189…04b7backed Yes2c615.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-80.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x889c…f498backed Yes17c571.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa249…cda0backed Yes21c536.42$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1601…ed94backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-73.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes14c499.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x030c…521bbacked Yes22c499.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92e5…d129backed Yes18c499$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4121…7499backed Yes11c485.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.31229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes15c473.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed No77c467.34$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.731546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes12c467$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.046141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x987c…7f4ebacked Yes11c456.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc95…508abacked Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4663…74b1backed Yes11c450$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d1…40a0backed Yes12c448.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.162015%3 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-78.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca80…316abacked No70c420$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1281533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2424234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes15c399.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5890%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.