Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570076a0af4841b04b7a5695644e950e92347122b3deca3ea60cfd107d1ebe7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $501,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 3c | 25,374$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 13,422$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.78 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 9,648$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 6c | 8,698$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.2 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 9c | 5,157$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.39 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 15c | 4,750$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.5 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 4,566$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.81 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,478$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.39 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 3,425$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.61 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…bbdebacked Yes | 4c | 3,257$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,989$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 2,742$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 11c | 1,755$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 1,723$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954a…144abacked Yes | 3c | 1,401$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 1,164$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,043$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…2d93backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc000…ccd0backed Yes | 17c | 924.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 6c | 879.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 77c | 855.68$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 6c | 799.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 650.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 15c | 555$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 497.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9674…72b6backed Yes | 5c | 483.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 5c | 464.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…4268backed Yes | 5c | 431.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 379.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…608abacked Yes | 4c | 339.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed Yes | 17c | 290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 15c | 243.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 12c | 215.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…24c8backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 23c | 194.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed Yes | 17c | 175.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 16c | 174.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 74c | 135.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 17c | 122.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…7e48backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 74c | 117.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…2d7ebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…7ef2backed Yes | 17c | 65.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2261…ddecbacked No | 73c | 54.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…b956backed No | 76c | 42.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 74c | 41.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…1adfbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.