Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc5b2e674501fe2b32026ab27809cc8e59824f3c4ff88ea0f36bcd50e94959a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,496,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,618,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,496,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3425…5698backed Yes | 1c | 339,440$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 17c | 142,144$24,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,762.77 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…b22abacked Yes | 20c | 49,214$9,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,620.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 18c | 15,964$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 6c | 15,000$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.16 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 37c | 14,032$5,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,153.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 8c | 13,991$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 9c | 13,250$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…f637backed Yes | 15c | 12,103$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.72 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 70c | 9,756$6,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,963.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…b5f7backed Yes | 29c | 8,635$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 75c | 7,438$5,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 78c | 7,325$5,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 2c | 6,492$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…0d34backed Yes | 12c | 6,291$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 16c | 6,200$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…638dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,048$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 13c | 6,000$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…af21backed Yes | 3c | 5,808$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 37c | 5,798$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 77c | 5,676$4,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…03a1backed Yes | 6c | 5,657$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed No | 67c | 5,215$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 22c | 5,058$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 12c | 4,991$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…1409backed Yes | 4c | 4,680$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 80c | 4,441$3,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.7 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,267$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +656.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 30c | 4,148$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 78c | 4,062$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 7c | 4,038$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.3 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,581$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 9c | 3,415$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.43 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…fe90backed Yes | 13c | 3,252$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 70c | 3,226$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.83 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 19c | 3,149$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 15c | 3,099$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 3,070$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed No | 77c | 2,933$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 19c | 2,865$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.42 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 16c | 2,862$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.68 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 25c | 2,834$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.31 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 18c | 2,825$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.82 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…1b3ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,611$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 2,600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 22c | 2,539$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 14c | 2,481$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 4c | 2,415$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 80c | 2,403$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.69 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 21c | 2,322$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4cefbacked Yes | 16c | 2,277$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 12c | 2,249$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 21c | 2,220$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.64 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.7 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed Yes | 11c | 2,132$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…4b01backed Yes | 14c | 2,089$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…745cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,062$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 27c | 1,970$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.4 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…a478backed Yes | 8c | 1,943$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…99dbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,935$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…add9backed Yes | 21c | 1,929$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7042…7085backed Yes | 16c | 1,906$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 1,786$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 10c | 1,770$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 5c | 1,769$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed Yes | 17c | 1,750$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…41f9backed Yes | 15c | 1,710$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…1088backed Yes | 14c | 1,694$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,694$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,681$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c0c4backed No | 77c | 1,674$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed Yes | 12c | 1,642$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 10c | 1,567$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…10d6backed Yes | 19c | 1,559$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…003dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,557$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed Yes | 21c | 1,542$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4096…2440backed No | 80c | 1,540$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 16c | 1,522$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 27c | 1,436$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 69c | 1,423$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.13 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134b…4ac7backed Yes | 17c | 1,421$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…3c20backed Yes | 17c | 1,412$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 15c | 1,369$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…6e6abacked Yes | 16c | 1,356$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,347$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 10c | 1,319$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 75c | 1,302$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.46 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…4ad3backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…00bcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,299$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 6c | 1,293$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,292$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…eccebacked Yes | 19c | 1,258$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,252$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 23c | 1,244$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 18c | 1,242$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.