Middle East · resolved market
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360f2bc551b4c3bbe5ff9b3ccbeef7902dc57c35fda25cb5581b6d8cef9e51f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,293,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,179,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,293,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 77,594$56,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,096.56 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…a9dbbacked No | 0c | 61,668$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 19c | 51,050$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,550.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 0c | 50,612$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 25c | 49,872$12,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,628.15 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…dc7abacked No | 6c | 40,540$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked No | 0c | 34,027$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…c3a3backed No | 1c | 29,858$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 18c | 29,478$5,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,213.17 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 14c | 26,825$3,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,103.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 66c | 26,164$17,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,388.84 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ab…6925backed Yes | 24c | 22,583$5,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,190.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…481fbacked No | 12c | 17,025$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 20c | 16,450$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,207.63 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…e6e2backed Yes | 16c | 15,631$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,136.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 27c | 15,332$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,255.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…f1b3backed No | 1c | 13,800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…f867backed Yes | 8c | 12,524$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,471.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +352.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…90a0backed No | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 0c | 11,180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 0c | 11,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 12c | 10,895$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,567.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 73c | 10,625$7,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,709.19 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…f2c1backed Yes | 20c | 10,122$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,122.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…ac21backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 8c | 9,331$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,538.18 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 13c | 9,003$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed No | 32c | 8,967$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 70c | 8,793$6,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,143.61 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 11c | 8,056$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,130.75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 74c | 8,000$5,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,890 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…9680backed No | 0c | 7,930$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes | 10c | 7,756$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,002.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +318.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 7,619$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,429.19 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…f47fbacked Yes | 40c | 7,584$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,583.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 78c | 7,449$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,783.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 13c | 7,215$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,265.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…d428backed Yes | 10c | 7,038$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,327.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 77c | 7,021$5,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 28c | 7,000$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,023.41 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 34c | 6,955$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,564.19 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 31c | 5,780$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,981 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 46c | 5,440$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.85 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed No | 66c | 5,217$3,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.27 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…2368backed No | 0c | 5,185$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,882$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,925.56 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…dc6dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,839$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,248.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 21c | 4,564$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,587.04 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 77c | 4,403$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…15dabacked No | 73c | 4,285$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 4,030$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.62 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 32c | 3,932$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 76c | 3,868$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.75 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…4fc2backed Yes | 9c | 3,792$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +195%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…a1eebacked No | 0c | 3,433$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb09…4e3bbacked No | 0c | 3,372$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 14c | 3,327$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 79c | 3,220$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…7adbbacked Yes | 31c | 3,198$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 9c | 3,110$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed No | 73c | 3,083$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.05 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 34c | 3,078$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…a3d3backed Yes | 14c | 3,034$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 19c | 3,020$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…2003backed Yes | 8c | 2,662$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 18c | 2,617$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 68c | 2,292$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed Yes | 29c | 2,263$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 10c | 2,222$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 11c | 2,151$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.22 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 9c | 2,147$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ced…f699backed No | 75c | 2,036$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…4b44backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No | 47c | 1,945$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…962abacked Yes | 18c | 1,943$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…b339backed Yes | 18c | 1,920$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…fa5cbacked No | 19c | 1,806$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 72c | 1,784$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.66 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked No | 2c | 1,764$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 36c | 1,750$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 73c | 1,632$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 35c | 1,602$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…cbe5backed Yes | 22c | 1,589$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 40c | 1,571$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 26c | 1,555$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f4…e138backed Yes | 20c | 1,532$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…1794backed Yes | 10c | 1,504$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed No | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.5 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked No | 26c | 1,500$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 74c | 1,497$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.98 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…5adabacked No | 73c | 1,372$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 1,368$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.27 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…3ecfbacked No | 76c | 1,340$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…c282backed Yes | 11c | 1,307$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +181%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.