TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,293,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,179,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,293,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No72c77,594$56,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,096.5651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c45…a9dbbacked No0c61,668$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cf…4275backed Yes19c51,050$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,550.31070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+126%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed No0c50,612$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.681747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes25c49,872$12,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,628.153770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8178…dc7abacked No6c40,540$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ec…eaacbacked No0c34,027$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd851…c3a3backed No1c29,858$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes18c29,478$5,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,213.179815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes14c26,825$3,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,103.7933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No66c26,164$17,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,388.8410150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ab…6925backed Yes24c22,583$5,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,190.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+318.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ae…481fbacked No12c17,025$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes20c16,450$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,207.6316743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d9…e6e2backed Yes16c15,631$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,136.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+526.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes27c15,332$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,255.61855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x815f…f1b3backed No1c13,800$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb18…f867backed Yes8c12,524$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,471.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+352.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf95…90a0backed No0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No0c11,180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No0c11,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes12c10,895$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,567.652528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No73c10,625$7,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,709.193943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3075…f2c1backed Yes20c10,122$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,122.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+153.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd520…ac21backed Yes14c10,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,600366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+204.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes8c9,331$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,538.1815743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes13c9,003$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,800.671442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed No32c8,967$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No70c8,793$6,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,143.612552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes11c8,056$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,130.753141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No74c8,000$5,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,89013850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7667…9680backed No0c7,930$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.381216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes10c7,756$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,002.19650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+318.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes29c7,619$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,429.1926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b57…f47fbacked Yes40c7,584$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.81580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No78c7,449$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.462445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes13c7,215$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,265.912733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+77.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe12a…d428backed Yes10c7,038$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,327.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+138.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes77c7,021$5,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.221040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes28c7,000$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.415922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes34c6,955$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,564.195121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes31c5,780$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9812927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes46c5,440$2,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.858951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed No66c5,217$3,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.272326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89d0…2368backed No0c5,185$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes20c4,882$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,925.569831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3373…dc6dbacked Yes12c4,839$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+173.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes21c4,564$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,587.047337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked No77c4,403$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.551513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5e7…15dabacked No73c4,285$3,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c4,030$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,394.6277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No32c3,932$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.23551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No76c3,868$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.755143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc4c…4fc2backed Yes9c3,792$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.67540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+195%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c2d…a1eebacked No0c3,433$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb09…4e3bbacked No0c3,372$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes14c3,327$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.621827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No79c3,220$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.492050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked Yes31c3,198$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed No9c3,110$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed No73c3,083$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.055736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes34c3,078$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.46137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaba…a3d3backed Yes14c3,034$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,609.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+179.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes19c3,020$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.54639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x564b…2003backed Yes8c2,662$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.66650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+158.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes18c2,617$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1456726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No68c2,292$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.32321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed Yes29c2,263$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.632650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes9c2,222$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.53per pick33cpaid+308.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes10c2,222$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.85158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes11c2,151$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.227940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No9c2,147$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.151030%3 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+187.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ced…f699backed No75c2,036$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3807142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No72c2,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb045…4b44backed Yes15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3203644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No47c1,945$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.112040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b30…962abacked Yes18c1,943$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+134.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3889…b339backed Yes18c1,920$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.43540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd32a…fa5cbacked No19c1,806$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No72c1,784$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.665836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd5b…b95ebacked No2c1,764$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No36c1,750$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6372152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed No73c1,632$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes35c1,602$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6f…cbe5backed Yes22c1,589$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbc…e74ebacked No40c1,571$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No26c1,555$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.42728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+89.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f4…e138backed Yes20c1,532$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+134.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ea…1794backed Yes10c1,504$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+146.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c8…c493backed No75c1,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1251030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes10c1,500$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.54030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb2…6dbebacked No26c1,500$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No74c1,497$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.9837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a2…5adabacked No73c1,372$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c1,368$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.2740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x312e…3ecfbacked No76c1,340$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f8…c282backed Yes11c1,307$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+181%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.