Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d75f221ec38a3c8a5c43507bc44e68073a69cc26e249afa37bf97d7dd207512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $624,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $525,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 20c | 20,741$4,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,109.46 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…eb9ebacked Yes | 20c | 16,550$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 19c | 14,703$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.38 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 16c | 11,971$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Yes | 18c | 11,250$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 18c | 11,233$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafe…5272backed Yes | 19c | 10,637$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcc…272ebacked Yes | 25c | 10,563$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 17c | 10,463$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabb…10a7backed Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 17c | 9,964$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.01 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 17c | 9,915$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 9,291$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.28 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 19c | 9,173$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 20c | 8,634$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 17c | 7,698$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.7 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 18c | 7,307$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 19c | 6,934$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…a4fabacked Yes | 19c | 6,207$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 16c | 6,152$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…010bbacked Yes | 42c | 6,115$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 18c | 6,013$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…de39backed Yes | 18c | 5,878$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…78ecbacked Yes | 18c | 5,537$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 19c | 5,280$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 14c | 5,138$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…3b53backed Yes | 21c | 5,042$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…128bbacked Yes | 20c | 4,913$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa977…3104backed Yes | 21c | 4,744$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…f9d1backed Yes | 22c | 4,463$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 25c | 4,428$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…3fdcbacked Yes | 19c | 4,076$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…b1cebacked Yes | 23c | 3,900$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 3,854$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.85 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 17c | 3,745$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 18c | 3,363$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…f503backed Yes | 18c | 3,296$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 17c | 3,210$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 16c | 3,200$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…ebd2backed Yes | 29c | 3,102$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1290…5269backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…7ec9backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…87fcbacked Yes | 18c | 2,999$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…b175backed No | 79c | 2,700$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…8ea3backed Yes | 20c | 2,626$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…dcfcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,576$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…825cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,560$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…6d6cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,522$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…b64cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…b00cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…9f21backed Yes | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 2,352$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.81 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…002ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,344$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…b755backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,986$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.43 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 12c | 1,914$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…bb50backed Yes | 18c | 1,846$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…fe84backed No | 72c | 1,770$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed Yes | 17c | 1,765$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 78c | 1,750$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 20c | 1,733$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…971fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,710$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…54f8backed Yes | 18c | 1,707$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…353ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,670$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,646$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,565$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes | 19c | 1,434$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…9d20backed Yes | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…232abacked Yes | 18c | 1,389$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…1241backed Yes | 18c | 1,370$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…9382backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 1,258$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…c8d2backed Yes | 16c | 1,255$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…8315backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 80c | 1,186$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…24cebacked Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…d84bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,126$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…43fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,116$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeab…3516backed Yes | 21c | 1,106$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…e80bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,030$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 3c | 1,016$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 1,014$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.03 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…5156backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc127…7d42backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…12f8backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…5ce8backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…8b2bbacked Yes | 20c | 948.35$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…61dcbacked Yes | 19c | 905.56$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…fbf6backed No | 80c | 891.26$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.