TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$371,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5696…9df8backed No18c12,140$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.76130%0 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdabb…10a7backed No16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes76c9,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1602944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca5…76bfbacked No24c8,892$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No20c6,459$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.515433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed No21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+89.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ff…01c0backed No23c4,438$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf6…eb9ebacked No18c3,832$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1a…efe7backed No17c3,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed No9c3,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c2,904$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.216833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8926…b8bebacked No18c2,139$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No19c2,045$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.845326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes78c2,000$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed No18c1,931$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed No13c1,800$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234498.2%4 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…3868backed No17c1,659$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac0…041fbacked No17c1,652$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.8170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed No16c1,531$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.341816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5935…fe84backed Yes80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+85.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd23…3683backed No17c1,325$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.33714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff5…d787backed No18c1,090$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc873…2ff4backed No19c1,056$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No16c1,050$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec4…a2c6backed No22c1,010$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.41030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60eb…4949backed No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+95.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd10d…2548backed No21c999.96$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked No17c962.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes80c943.2$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.918331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked No17c876.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7490%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c866.47$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes78c670.38$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb710…c83ebacked Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b75…be16backed Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Yes80c588.02$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes80c543.75$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.751735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d5…4699backed Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe280…8b56backed No21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…abdcbacked No22c457.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed No18c440$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22437.5%9 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+104.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No16c427$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.684729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd61…ac77backed No13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb497…78b8backed No19c350$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x679c…d8a1backed No22c340.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503129%9 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cbf…3b2ebacked No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…fc56backed No19c290$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Yes79c259.04$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f76…60d2backed No20c247.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed No19c244.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.232119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No13c240$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23215.6%5 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9c…61febacked No21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc831…9973backed No22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f21…690ebacked Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb9…a909backed No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4c…dd95backed No16c178.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed No18c176.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-87.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe787…65d4backed Yes80c167.45$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65f…24c8backed No17c162$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x423d…aadcbacked No16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c18…e750backed No22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f6…6aa9backed No21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x990a…d104backed No19c116.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No13c114.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.943815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4fc…fc63backed No19c101.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc906…6d2fbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad3d…7a40backed No21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe998…c17fbacked Yes80c85.1$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd375…6637backed No18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No15c79.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503d…52d9backed No21c72.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe5…a83bbacked No16c63.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bd…7901backed No21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe37c…3f0dbacked No20c53.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1108…cb47backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb59d…2ddabacked Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f09…b99bbacked Yes80c23.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4458…1ab8backed Yes80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd29b…f7ddbacked Yes79c17.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96e…8c59backed Yes79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.