Movies · resolved market
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc217462793554f9cd2b1e1e43db9b23bb82c6cbae2fc5779fafbf9a8cf4f7942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 1c | 44,788$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 15c | 25,203$3,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.32 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 11c | 18,553$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 26c | 17,496$4,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,483.43 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 22c | 13,518$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.67 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…4f16backed Yes | 18c | 10,612$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 8,093$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.35 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 14c | 5,429$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.93 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,399$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.8 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 3,762$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.75 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 28c | 2,754$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.68 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,754$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.64 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…02b3backed Yes | 3c | 2,642$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,609$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 2,440$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 33c | 2,279$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.69 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 66c | 2,041$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.82 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 19c | 1,823$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.68 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 69c | 1,785$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d9…121ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,712$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,686$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,657$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,643$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 38c | 1,635$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed Yes | 36c | 1,607$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 79c | 1,167$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes | 52c | 1,038$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 7c | 1,018$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 15c | 892.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc116…6f0abacked Yes | 36c | 808.57$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 72c | 719.99$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 9c | 637.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 7c | 589.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 52c | 577.84$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 9c | 562.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed Yes | 6c | 550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 548.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 485$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…9713backed Yes | 9c | 470$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 30c | 450.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed Yes | 7c | 429.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 5c | 411$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 6c | 322.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…896bbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 18c | 298$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 34c | 294.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 293.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 72c | 277$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed No | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 51c | 252.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed Yes | 26c | 192.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked No | 78c | 186.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked Yes | 10c | 184.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 18c | 158.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…c0c6backed Yes | 10c | 155.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79b…b9eebacked No | 66c | 151.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ba…b6f0backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…afc1backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…fe41backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…09acbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…67eebacked No | 61c | 99.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…92b2backed Yes | 39c | 99.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…06d2backed Yes | 17c | 98.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…2e00backed Yes | 37c | 94.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…be74backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…1984backed Yes | 38c | 88.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 18c | 87.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1938…6587backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed No | 50c | 62.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…979cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a7…c9debacked Yes | 51c | 58.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 52c | 50.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…3128backed No | 75c | 30.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 67c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…1a74backed No | 66c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20bb…5bb4backed Yes | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.