TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes1c44,788$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.91933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes15c25,203$3,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.323414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62e4…184ebacked Yes11c18,553$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.32128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes26c17,496$4,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,483.438840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes22c13,518$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.675536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d7…4f16backed Yes18c10,612$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes7c8,093$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.3518719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes14c5,429$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.935743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes11c5,399$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes36c3,762$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.757038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes28c2,754$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.689238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes9c2,754$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.64296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3077…02b3backed Yes3c2,642$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes8c2,609$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.621214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c2,440$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes33c2,279$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.694231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No66c2,041$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.8232639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes5c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes19c1,823$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.685040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed No69c1,785$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.841030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13d9…121ebacked Yes7c1,712$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes26c1,686$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.582313%3 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c1,657$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.778422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes3c1,643$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes38c1,635$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.57839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9790…85d7backed Yes36c1,607$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No79c1,167$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.052133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes52c1,038$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes7c1,018$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes15c892.43$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5518431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc116…6f0abacked Yes36c808.57$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No72c719.99$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.56640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes9c637.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes7c589.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes52c577.84$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.322924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes9c562.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.48238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed Yes6c550$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes2c548.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4216614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.992462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Yes13c499.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+74%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No74c499.99$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes8c485$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f7…9713backed Yes9c470$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes30c450.53$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.731729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cce…44b9backed Yes7c429.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes5c411$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes6c322.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed Yes66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4927…896bbacked No68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes18c298$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.722528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes34c294.26$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.945848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c293.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No72c277$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.953043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835b…6087backed No74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked No51c252.91$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.081020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f35…7594backed Yes26c192.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked No78c186.09$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2835…a1aabacked Yes10c184.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+149.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b97…99e5backed Yes18c158.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.912853.6%15 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda3d…c0c6backed Yes10c155.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc79b…b9eebacked No66c151.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ba…b6f0backed Yes50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa93…afc1backed Yes50c130$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes10c125$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.880%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa29…5eeebacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb409…fe41backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5726…09acbacked Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.69441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640b…102abacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x530d…67eebacked No61c99.51$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…92b2backed Yes39c99.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa145…06d2backed Yes17c98.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a7…2e00backed Yes37c94.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…be74backed Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57b…1984backed Yes38c88.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes18c87.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.715437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1938…6587backed Yes39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed No50c62.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.09944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf183…979cbacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a7…c9debacked Yes51c58.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022d…521cbacked Yes35c57.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x749b…8805backed Yes52c50.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31a…3128backed No75c30.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed No67c28.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.622944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No80c24.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68e4…1a74backed No66c15.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20bb…5bb4backed Yes76c13.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.