Movies · resolved market
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33bf4944460548fd3bd1de9df195503c2563cea39ec8f43dcc26f50da58ec359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 2c | 16,009$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 4c | 11,366$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.49 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 25c | 10,470$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.99 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked No | 4c | 8,631$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 4,765$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.3 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 54c | 3,762$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.68 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 10c | 3,385$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.37 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 62c | 2,738$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.29 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 2,676$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 79c | 2,066$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…02b3backed No | 5c | 1,889$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,800$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.85 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 45c | 1,155$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.82 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 1,080$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 14c | 1,005$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 40c | 952$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 70c | 878.07$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.39 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 28c | 860.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.03 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…4f16backed No | 33c | 708.13$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 44c | 500.04$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…7e01backed Yes | 78c | 464.32$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 59c | 430.53$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…f871backed No | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 57c | 386.63$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 33c | 351.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 63c | 330$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 36c | 310$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 5c | 288.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 9c | 272.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 76c | 260.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 24c | 230$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 48c | 209.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 24c | 201.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 69c | 194.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 59c | 191.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 78c | 161.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…afc1backed Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 123.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…b392backed Yes | 64c | 109.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…8058backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +420%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…fbd6backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…886fbacked Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04d…06f9backed No | 34c | 84.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…4f83backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 44c | 35.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…15eebacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…979cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.