TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$453,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$405,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes10c52,300$4,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,971.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c4…37c9backed Yes7c22,685$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c21,583$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.6118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a8…3351backed Yes9c18,000$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes8c16,672$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.533414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes6c16,022$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.975743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes0c14,626$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.112313%3 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Yes5c14,248$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No47c12,899$6,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,788.388840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes23c8,774$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.831233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3d…5bdfbacked Yes9c7,558$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes13c7,190$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.28120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes11c6,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6309238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ede…fa07backed Yes10c5,387$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb8…b136backed Yes3c4,162$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.18140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes8c3,762$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.987038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed Yes8c3,647$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes64c3,560$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.2932639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes4c3,416$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes9c3,267$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.316350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x422a…9352backed Yes7c3,217$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd923…f400backed Yes32c2,650$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9880%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes1c2,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5982…fa1ebacked Yes6c2,360$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed Yes3c2,340$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes8c2,147$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2516040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Yes35c2,000$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.771020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c3…a723backed Yes4c2,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No71c1,862$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.811346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed Yes64c1,640$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.511030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes21c1,628$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No50c1,626$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.15536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes34c1,517$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.344231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ac…2287backed Yes1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…03e7backed Yes21c1,498$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-79.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Yes1c1,460$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6691…17cfbacked No28c1,422$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,366$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes76c1,315$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3a…d194backed Yes68c1,246$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes5c1,007$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked No18c994$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+452.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes8c992.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedb…c554backed No34c897.44$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes1c888$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed Yes59c794.3$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.01425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes54c657$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.996640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae6f…7399backed Yes62c656.67$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes13c631.33$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.46238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes22c601.26$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.54296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bb…00afbacked Yes66c537.91$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f35…7594backed No62c504.17$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked No80c497.81$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.821414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2038…1024backed Yes3c496$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes12c450.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.821729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes28c450$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No28c426$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadcd…7295backed Yes42c410$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad32…80a3backed No58c410$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb626…e748backed Yes71c408.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e4…184ebacked No55c405$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.25128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes35c354.5$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.354050%20 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes54c343.86$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed Yes70c341.18$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+293%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes51c340$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.959441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes30c340$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55a6…3899backed Yes15c335.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a66…1c60backed Yes21c325.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes18c325$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.755920.3%12 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x835b…6087backed Yes68c293.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed Yes71c281.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaae…7b32backed Yes75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2835…a1aabacked No13c199.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+149.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c193.59$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes63c189.92$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31b…292ebacked Yes50c180.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5726…09acbacked Yes11c172$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…ec35backed Yes7c152.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes63c138$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes38c115.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.291952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3879…0df4backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No34c99.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.981662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+74%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca50…0d43backed Yes62c99.19$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fc…b45cbacked Yes58c99.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…6b69backed No43c98.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc66b…7493backed No39c98.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.