Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d455df75bf78e1b541bdbde04322a94940a9c2513c1f6a937fffe834255fa30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $679,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $546,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 53,884$12,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,435.19 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 21c | 37,984$7,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,934.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 18c | 36,452$6,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,704.96 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 78c | 34,772$27,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,513.43 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 32,450$6,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,412.6 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 75c | 20,784$15,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,196 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…9757backed Yes | 13c | 19,393$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 18c | 17,855$3,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.78 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 21c | 15,834$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 18c | 15,236$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 13c | 14,335$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 15c | 12,992$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 11c | 12,023$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed No | 75c | 11,445$8,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 18c | 10,020$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.05 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 11c | 9,518$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 78c | 7,088$5,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.18 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 15c | 6,927$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 77c | 6,390$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.53 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…1e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 6,103$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 5,909$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.7 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 23c | 5,106$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,975$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 21c | 4,500$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 12c | 4,491$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 26c | 4,359$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 76c | 4,000$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…bb50backed Yes | 16c | 3,636$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 12c | 3,082$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 14c | 3,043$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 19c | 3,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 2,990$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.09 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 20c | 2,901$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 15c | 2,839$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,805$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,750$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.71 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 24c | 2,627$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed Yes | 20c | 2,600$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 21c | 2,453$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…87fcbacked Yes | 24c | 2,252$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,240$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…c8d2backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 1,981$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 21c | 1,980$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.74 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…eb9ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,803$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,710$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.53 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 22c | 1,691$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c4ddbacked Yes | 19c | 1,350$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…995fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,340$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 12c | 1,324$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,318$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…fd35backed Yes | 16c | 1,308$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed Yes | 21c | 1,255$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,200$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,162$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…feb3backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fd…1e2dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,037$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 13c | 1,012$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…3256backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 78c | 1,001$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…db22backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 983.94$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…6f27backed Yes | 17c | 892.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 77c | 888$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 23c | 876.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 16c | 871$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…0e4bbacked Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 20c | 776.32$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 13c | 753$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…a0cabacked Yes | 20c | 677$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed Yes | 19c | 670.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 79c | 650$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…7997backed Yes | 17c | 619.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…5a29backed Yes | 17c | 598.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 18c | 586.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…fa8dbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 6c | 528$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 22c | 506$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 21c | 500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 16c | 499.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…e7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 478.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 475$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…102dbacked Yes | 22c | 475$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked Yes | 21c | 469.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…4383backed Yes | 23c | 438.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…a5cfbacked Yes | 21c | 425.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…212fbacked Yes | 24c | 425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 23c | 420$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…a4fabacked Yes | 16c | 411.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election?No won
- Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.