Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7d8d88ba361a47853735fd80825dbe00a0b7912b8257725d02f7123c4e2411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,212,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,212,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 0c | 31,082$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 1c | 22,225$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…2e36backed Yes | 0c | 22,077$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…2009backed Yes | 0c | 21,981$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…b065backed Yes | 0c | 21,550$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faa…cf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,442$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…2095backed Yes | 0c | 20,839$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…a2a8backed Yes | 0c | 20,443$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…33c0backed Yes | 0c | 20,327$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa25…b117backed Yes | 0c | 20,078$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…e31fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,994$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…d354backed Yes | 0c | 19,905$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…1aa6backed Yes | 0c | 19,905$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…d366backed Yes | 0c | 19,733$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…4baabacked Yes | 0c | 19,733$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…f026backed Yes | 0c | 19,704$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…7a75backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…2b30backed Yes | 0c | 12,809$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ed…6bc3backed Yes | 0c | 12,809$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…40a5backed Yes | 0c | 12,809$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…3338backed Yes | 0c | 12,754$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,702$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…9b50backed Yes | 0c | 12,513$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…dc86backed Yes | 0c | 12,415$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…166cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…ab74backed Yes | 0c | 11,185$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b1…451bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,185$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…31acbacked Yes | 0c | 11,161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…e771backed Yes | 0c | 11,120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…7e8cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f3…9075backed Yes | 0c | 11,088$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…d8dabacked Yes | 0c | 11,067$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…f780backed Yes | 0c | 11,067$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 11,034$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…8c0bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,509$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…c2c9backed Yes | 0c | 10,466$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccd…3c65backed Yes | 0c | 10,466$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…cd00backed Yes | 0c | 10,413$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb0…3228backed Yes | 0c | 10,413$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…3fbcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,292$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…da1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,292$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…d0f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,259$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…5d8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,259$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…8880backed Yes | 0c | 10,259$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…c6a5backed Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…96b3backed Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fb…2719backed Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…61a1backed Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5918…e34fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…f9bfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c52…6af4backed Yes | 0c | 10,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…27f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,174$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…d54abacked Yes | 0c | 10,174$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…ea9abacked Yes | 0c | 10,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694b…c8d4backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…78f3backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…fd03backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…3a5cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…95c6backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…9d6abacked Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…5b44backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…d69ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…2457backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…a138backed Yes | 0c | 9,968$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…d5cebacked Yes | 0c | 9,968$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1915…98a1backed Yes | 0c | 9,967$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc73…ee70backed Yes | 0c | 7,287$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 7,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…e450backed Yes | 0c | 6,584$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88c…98f8backed Yes | 1c | 5,583$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 0c | 5,142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 5,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…250dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…3385backed Yes | 0c | 3,943$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 1c | 3,447$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…6ce1backed Yes | 1c | 2,648$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…fa42backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 2,072$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,506$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.