Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8ca6de72307c6640b479edd36c7fa2a72aface0ad576d923f3404e69c798fb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $580,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $648,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 23c | 97,744$22,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,367.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 75c | 26,405$19,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,601.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes | 80c | 25,840$20,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.09 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 78c | 17,156$13,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked No | 21c | 16,861$3,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,620.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 79c | 13,011$10,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.68 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 18c | 12,271$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 73c | 10,918$7,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 22c | 10,691$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…2e33backed Yes | 79c | 8,111$6,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 23c | 7,494$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 22c | 6,699$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 19c | 6,000$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 80c | 5,586$4,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.28 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 80c | 5,122$4,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.05 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…4383backed No | 16c | 5,083$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed No | 21c | 4,873$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 19c | 4,849$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.53 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 79c | 4,536$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.79 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 74c | 4,263$3,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.67 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 75c | 3,647$2,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 18c | 3,455$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.1 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed No | 14c | 3,436$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.83 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 76c | 3,199$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.41 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 23c | 3,165$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 22c | 3,002$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 78c | 2,628$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 15c | 2,180$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.13 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 23c | 2,000$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed No | 31c | 1,790$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed Yes | 76c | 1,777$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 80c | 1,500$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 14c | 1,450$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 1,214$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.58 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…3338backed No | 8c | 1,203$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…54f8backed No | 12c | 862.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 14c | 750.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 9c | 722.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 16c | 680.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…bafdbacked Yes | 77c | 651.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes | 79c | 582.52$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed No | 19c | 537.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 80c | 535.01$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…76b2backed No | 20c | 518.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 79c | 502.84$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 78c | 400$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…f104backed No | 12c | 384$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 13c | 371.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 79c | 296.7$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 79c | 267.39$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 78c | 254.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…dc26backed Yes | 80c | 243.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…1c50backed No | 24c | 211.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa47…552bbacked Yes | 80c | 176.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…1c65backed Yes | 80c | 172.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…a896backed Yes | 80c | 163.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 13c | 161.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…aadcbacked No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 77c | 129.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 79c | 127.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…87a8backed No | 33c | 118.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…9fabbacked No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 23c | 90.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 90.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…9615backed Yes | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38e…88d6backed No | 23c | 52.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…1e9cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb031…99d8backed Yes | 79c | 41.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…362dbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…a6b2backed Yes | 78c | 30.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb636…688bbacked Yes | 80c | 28.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…bcd5backed Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…d1d1backed Yes | 80c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…2f10backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…4c73backed Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.