TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$580,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$648,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No23c97,744$22,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,367.373336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes75c26,405$19,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,601.261338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes80c25,840$20,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,278.091888.9%16 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes78c17,156$13,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac0…041fbacked No21c16,861$3,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,620.6970%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes79c13,011$10,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.685824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed No18c12,271$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Yes73c10,918$7,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,969.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed No22c10,691$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2221…2e33backed Yes79c8,111$6,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708f…f236backed No23c7,494$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed No22c6,699$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.272437.5%9 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+104.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked No19c6,000$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes80c5,586$4,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.284619.6%9 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes80c5,122$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.057731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e66…4383backed No16c5,083$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed No21c4,873$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No19c4,849$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.533013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes79c4,536$3,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.795738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes74c4,263$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.672944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60eb…4949backed Yes75c3,647$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.741947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+95.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No18c3,455$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.15326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5696…9df8backed No14c3,436$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.83130%0 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes76c3,199$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.412128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked No23c3,165$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.1290%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…8839backed No22c3,002$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes78c2,628$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.72922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No15c2,180$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.135433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No23c2,000$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes76c2,000$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4721656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48da…6d88backed No31c1,790$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf1…d523backed Yes76c1,777$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240e…e8aabacked Yes80c1,500$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.375100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No14c1,450$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.881127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c1,214$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c75…3338backed No8c1,203$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…54f8backed No12c862.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed No14c750.57$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-87.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No9c722.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.563215.6%5 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No16c680.02$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0524861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7333…bafdbacked Yes77c651.13$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes79c582.52$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…6552backed No19c537.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes80c535.01$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.878331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8d…76b2backed No20c518.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes79c502.84$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.642356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No17c500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes78c400$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.21258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc395…5c8cbacked No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.132729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf5…f104backed No12c384$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4825…007dbacked No13c371.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes76c300$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.21030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes78c300$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes79c299.99$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.471250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes79c296.7$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.653026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes79c267.39$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.43580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+293.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes78c254.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.981735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes77c250$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8788…dc26backed Yes80c243.5$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick32cpaid+101.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9db…1c50backed No24c211.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.84833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa47…552bbacked Yes80c176.23$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2d…1c65backed Yes80c172.14$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802b…a896backed Yes80c163.63$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed No13c161.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.771827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x423d…aadcbacked No18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83e2…ce08backed Yes77c129.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes79c127.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf056…87a8backed No33c118.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d1…9fabbacked No16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked No23c90.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.421612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No18c90.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9716833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab18…9615backed Yes79c63.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc38e…88d6backed No23c52.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.13414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52e…1e9cbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb031…99d8backed Yes79c41.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0096…362dbacked Yes80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb258…a6b2backed Yes78c30.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb636…688bbacked Yes80c28.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d2…bcd5backed Yes78c25.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcde4…d1d1backed Yes80c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…2f10backed Yes80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989b…4c73backed Yes80c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes76c15.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.74450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.