Middle East · resolved market
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324406e91743e6fe0f42221b872e4d8ee7279d876af357f3403a30e622f73195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66a…bb25backed Yes | 16c | 13,756$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 70c | 12,294$8,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,746.78 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…3e9abacked Yes | 15c | 7,603$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 28c | 7,549$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.94 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 6,011$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.82 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 17c | 5,248$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.35 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 40c | 4,847$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 77c | 4,785$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 12c | 4,188$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 65c | 4,009$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.02 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 51c | 4,000$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,758$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.52 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 39c | 3,698$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 47c | 3,586$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 64c | 3,427$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 17c | 3,241$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.67 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,064$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 11c | 2,600$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 34c | 2,385$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 69c | 2,365$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,267$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 9c | 2,168$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…9ad1backed Yes | 0c | 2,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…621ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,847$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 21c | 1,816$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.95 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 40c | 1,758$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.62 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 23c | 1,724$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.73 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 80c | 1,701$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.42 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 65cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed No | 79c | 1,668$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.17 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…03a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,573$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e94…7670backed No | 77c | 1,541$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 24c | 1,520$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…a9f2backed Yes | 25c | 1,520$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 78c | 1,499$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.56 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 25c | 1,497$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 56c | 1,419$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 27c | 1,147$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…e2d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,075$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 23c | 1,018$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…c74bbacked Yes | 17c | 968.43$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 5c | 953.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 79c | 945.44$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.73 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e7…626cbacked No | 69c | 927.44$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Yes | 35c | 899.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Yes | 18c | 899.43$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 40c | 882.67$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.29 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…986bbacked Yes | 29c | 871.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…a314backed No | 76c | 830$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 18c | 827.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 63c | 794.27$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8129backed Yes | 4c | 793.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 41c | 787.63$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…e758backed Yes | 43c | 780.98$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 8c | 773.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 22c | 756.83$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 72c | 739.45$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 76c | 724.85$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…683dbacked Yes | 15c | 686.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 53c | 675.08$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes | 62c | 660.16$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 68c | 638.41$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…be65backed No | 60c | 611.1$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 62c | 596.85$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…af98backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…4885backed Yes | 17c | 585.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…3e45backed Yes | 17c | 584.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…7e1fbacked No | 72c | 570.61$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…1714backed Yes | 13c | 570$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 28c | 566.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked Yes | 23c | 522.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 41c | 500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…cdc9backed Yes | 59c | 493.08$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…389fbacked Yes | 10c | 475.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 16c | 469.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 12c | 442$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 21c | 440.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…2e0ebacked Yes | 10c | 401.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…1f3fbacked Yes | 20c | 390.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…f252backed Yes | 39c | 350.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 15c | 349.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 349.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74e…f8f0backed No | 61c | 326.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 319.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 307.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 302.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2947backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…45f2backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 51c | 299.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.