Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e861381d9a9f4eca9e90c15638dfac88f727ab13ddc153ab09dc1f3a4056d0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $835,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,051,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $835,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea35…cd49backed Yes | 17c | 36,579$6,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,079.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 24,635$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.15 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked Yes | 3c | 14,587$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 5c | 10,275$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 26c | 8,900$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 63c | 7,981$5,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 22c | 7,448$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 15c | 7,156$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,028$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…fd31backed No | 77c | 6,502$4,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 5,424$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…cd08backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…033abacked Yes | 54c | 4,631$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…4ffebacked Yes | 26c | 3,767$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…83f4backed Yes | 15c | 3,631$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 74c | 3,513$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…67c9backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…7f2dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,337$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 53c | 3,255$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6969backed Yes | 0c | 2,805$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 11c | 2,773$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…1e89backed Yes | 37c | 2,678$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 9c | 2,665$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 32c | 2,600$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 2c | 2,436$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daa…b3bebacked Yes | 3c | 2,263$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…5706backed No | 70c | 2,248$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 63c | 2,204$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…8c4abacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 69c | 1,933$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 77c | 1,773$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 17c | 1,740$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 57c | 1,733$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.79 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…a995backed Yes | 23c | 1,717$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 48c | 1,701$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 23c | 1,680$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…9786backed No | 80c | 1,436$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 34c | 1,310$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 38c | 1,293$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…1ddcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,262$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 24c | 1,235$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.13 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 26c | 1,157$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 47c | 1,136$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…fbf6backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,101$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 12c | 1,094$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…d549backed Yes | 55c | 1,087$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe527…3898backed Yes | 10c | 1,083$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,039$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 65c | 1,038$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 16c | 1,031$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,014$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…156abacked Yes | 54c | 1,012$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…204fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…8d31backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…1a17backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…7c05backed Yes | 10c | 969.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 52c | 965.89$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…cd73backed Yes | 44c | 909.39$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 2c | 900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 6c | 899.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 2c | 895.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 865.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 43c | 820$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…534bbacked No | 56c | 801.35$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 74c | 783.43$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 5c | 752.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 13c | 752.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9cddbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 24c | 714.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 30c | 701.77$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 57c | 700$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…08bdbacked No | 54c | 699.98$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62c…370ebacked Yes | 25c | 694.31$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 10c | 660.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 12c | 657.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8129backed Yes | 23c | 610$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…a575backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…5fc1backed Yes | 28c | 583.46$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 64c | 579.44$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…95e5backed Yes | 24c | 562$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 10c | 553.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…0be0backed Yes | 9c | 523.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed No | 75c | 523.37$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 76c | 508.29$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed Yes | 37c | 505.65$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 50c | 498.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 13c | 489.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…6c48backed No | 65c | 466.38$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…76e2backed Yes | 18c | 465.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73fa…745dbacked Yes | 16c | 450$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed No | 75c | 450$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.