Tweets · resolved market
Will Andrew Tate tweet 300-319 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e761355319a7c0d7b3624bfad570c08369a288f79dc0d4b5278c9fe5a6d22b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb404…c6e1backed Yes | 44c | 900$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…dc0ebacked No | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…9539backed No | 60c | 630$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299d…691dbacked Yes | 40c | 630$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 8c | 348.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc643…d7f3backed Yes | 15c | 328.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 9c | 277.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 139.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d0babacked Yes | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 62c | 28.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…6acebacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 300-319 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 120-139 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 140-159 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 160-179 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 180-199 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 200-219 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 220-239 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 240-259 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 260-279 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 280-299 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 320 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 120 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.