Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41695d4773b04881cccb39a0f982aa6a420250a2b099d058b73d40a605779070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,620$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.81 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…7c7cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…e49ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,213$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 3c | 1,940$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,660$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 52c | 1,529$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.84 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…83d6backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…af53backed Yes | 33c | 1,180$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 35c | 1,149$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…94dcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,147$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 54c | 1,077$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…b323backed Yes | 14c | 837.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 60c | 799.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…695bbacked No | 53c | 730.14$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 728.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 61c | 720$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed No | 62c | 668.42$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 37c | 599.97$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 45c | 563$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…5707backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 32c | 525.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…6e52backed Yes | 59c | 518.95$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e142backed Yes | 42c | 507.12$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 21c | 489.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…92fcbacked Yes | 44c | 441.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…1f17backed Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked No | 42c | 415.21$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 13c | 399.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 13c | 374.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 40c | 372.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 46c | 366.46$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe618…db35backed Yes | 14c | 357.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb62…1d05backed Yes | 28c | 353.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 29c | 347.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 30c | 336.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 47c | 314.68$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed No | 79c | 310.21$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 18c | 301.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 61c | 299.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f297backed Yes | 18c | 299.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…5888backed No | 71c | 295.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…664bbacked Yes | 38c | 290$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 17c | 289.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 18c | 276.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 68c | 273.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 270.25$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…c743backed No | 75c | 266.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e657backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 36c | 246.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 33c | 240.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 236.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 71c | 222$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 25c | 218.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 39c | 217.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…2e16backed Yes | 15c | 213.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 78c | 212.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 63c | 208.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 43c | 204.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 55c | 203.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…35acbacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 48c | 199.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…65a6backed Yes | 34c | 190.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 35c | 187.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 47c | 180.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…6fb6backed Yes | 45c | 171.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 20c | 171.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 80c | 163.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 11c | 162.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…b5febacked Yes | 62c | 161.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 30c | 149.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 144.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed Yes | 37c | 143.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 48c | 142.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 38c | 129$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked No | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…6a7fbacked Yes | 35c | 119.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…fa8abacked Yes | 45c | 109.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…afb2backed Yes | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…1fd0backed Yes | 20c | 104.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 29c | 104.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…8e33backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…0ab7backed Yes | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…5739backed Yes | 48c | 102.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…3a02backed No | 69c | 101.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 43c | 100.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…b179backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…bfd4backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…f66bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…e6ecbacked Yes | 42c | 98.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 38c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.