TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes20c2,620$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.8121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…7c7cbacked Yes0c2,262$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…e49ebacked Yes17c2,213$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes3c1,940$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6830319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes22c1,660$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.992516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No52c1,529$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.8415646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b9a…83d6backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9709…af53backed Yes33c1,180$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.32650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes35c1,149$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239d…94dcbacked Yes41c1,147$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No54c1,077$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.311656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d78…b323backed Yes14c837.63$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.051010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-84.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No60c799.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3204057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc89f…695bbacked No53c730.14$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c728.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No61c720$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.310749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58fe…5db9backed No62c668.42$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No37c599.97$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes45c563$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.722835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0278…5707backed Yes38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0065…02f3backed Yes32c525.75$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd0…6e52backed Yes59c518.95$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8712…e142backed Yes42c507.12$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc445…d6aebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid+316.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes21c489.68$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0718914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…92fcbacked Yes44c441.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbf…1f17backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked No42c415.21$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.121442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes13c399.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb189…35ebbacked Yes13c374.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.012128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes40c372.83$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+63.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No46c366.46$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.232347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe618…db35backed Yes14c357.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb62…1d05backed Yes28c353.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes29c347.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes30c336.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes47c314.68$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…0350backed No79c310.21$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes18c301.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.041435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No61c299.34$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.743043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f297backed Yes18c299.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b5…5888backed No71c295.22$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.435100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0982…664bbacked Yes38c290$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf59…6b27backed Yes17c289.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes18c276.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No68c273.12$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.672462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c270.25$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.561,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7486…c743backed No75c266.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes23c250$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e657backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b36…acebbacked Yes36c246.57$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes33c240.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c236.83$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No71c222$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes25c218.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.343423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No39c217.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.932133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c60…2e16backed Yes15c213.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No78c212.88$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.392250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No63c208.84$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.276838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No43c204.89$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.149829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No55c203.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9917355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c1…35acbacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes48c199.18$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.611931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes9c197$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.732425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9179…65a6backed Yes34c190.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes35c187.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.264429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No47c180.11$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0928636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…6fb6backed Yes45c171.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes20c171.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.683625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No80c163.13$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.631566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes11c162.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.273528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…b5febacked Yes62c161.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes70c160$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+76.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes30c149.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.412531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No71c144.32$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9037…1621backed Yes37c143.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.82850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No48c142.84$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes38c129$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce3…9236backed Yes39c120$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked No45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.551553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23fe…6a7fbacked Yes35c119.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…fa8abacked Yes45c109.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x173d…afb2backed Yes48c105.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…1fd0backed Yes20c104.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.271625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes29c104.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…8e33backed Yes48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c3…0ab7backed Yes68c102.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c84…5739backed Yes48c102.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7f…3a02backed No69c101.16$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+156.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No43c100.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.668741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5888…b179backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3c…bfd4backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7012649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8576…f66bbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3b…e6ecbacked Yes42c98.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+114.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No38c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.