Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63299865f52d4604bf976c7247719de77d6ae7b5d62834ee34a10ecfdde0ce19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3227…2727backed No | 37c | 17,247$6,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,388.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…695bbacked No | 5c | 15,108$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 1c | 13,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 6c | 10,714$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 9cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 1c | 7,064$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b3a6backed Yes | 54c | 5,460$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked Yes | 53c | 5,047$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 2c | 4,741$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 53c | 4,583$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…02bdbacked Yes | 60c | 3,328$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,104$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.56 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…5888backed Yes | 58c | 2,062$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked No | 60c | 1,964$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 1c | 1,939$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 42c | 1,678$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…8a3dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…ecacbacked Yes | 30c | 1,484$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 25c | 1,465$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 18c | 1,265$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.64 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…ae59backed Yes | 49c | 1,243$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 44c | 1,084$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.54 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed No | 70c | 1,056$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 55c | 1,007$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 59c | 999.97$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.98 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 20c | 994$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 981.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 52c | 975.5$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 51c | 971.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 56c | 900.45$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.23 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 54c | 884.46$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…39f3backed Yes | 25c | 862.63$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 24c | 840.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 56c | 785.83$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.25 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 53c | 744.94$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 10c | 743.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 74c | 736.03$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.59 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…836fbacked Yes | 45c | 658.25$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 29c | 599.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 42c | 590.23$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.58 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes | 25c | 539$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…5ad1backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…af53backed Yes | 16c | 490.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 21c | 466$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…9f00backed Yes | 43c | 446.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 446.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 49c | 440.42$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes | 51c | 425.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…efebbacked Yes | 38c | 410.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed No | 73c | 409.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 47c | 390.81$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 367.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.89 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 55c | 353.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes | 54c | 334.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…9be6backed No | 76c | 328.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…5cfabacked Yes | 29c | 320$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…fb0ebacked Yes | 43c | 299.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 20c | 291.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…008cbacked Yes | 52c | 288.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Yes | 78c | 286.54$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dd…ff95backed Yes | 80c | 284.49$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 54c | 272.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes | 19c | 261.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c985backed Yes | 35c | 259.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 73c | 258.69$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ae…619cbacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 64c | 239.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked Yes | 53c | 235.72$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…3b8fbacked Yes | 12c | 214.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…c2b6backed No | 53c | 212.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 62c | 209.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 8c | 208$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked No | 57c | 205.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 50c | 200.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…d04ebacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 45c | 193.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…5e47backed Yes | 32c | 187.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 27c | 186.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…23b6backed Yes | 54c | 185.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…2f8abacked Yes | 52c | 182.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…9b79backed No | 66c | 180$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 31c | 170$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 27c | 166$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…ce6cbacked Yes | 59c | 163.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…17d8backed Yes | 38c | 157.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…774abacked Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 38c | 147.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes | 55c | 145.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…e509backed Yes | 67c | 144.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…4db2backed Yes | 25c | 143.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +295.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked No | 51c | 137.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 53c | 137.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.