Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f086bb666432b5f967ff58343c46d683ed7db8339d9a7f6c7c254d978a99506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 1c | 15,293$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 1c | 5,610$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 21c | 4,972$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.53 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 4c | 4,720$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 76c | 4,254$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.89 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 3,781$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.2 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c4…af47backed Yes | 73c | 3,583$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 4c | 3,510$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 19c | 3,287$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…53c9backed No | 28c | 3,198$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…34d2backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 4c | 1,882$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…ccf7backed Yes | 67c | 1,779$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 19c | 1,583$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 5c | 1,499$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 19c | 1,448$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.9 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 13c | 1,437$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 22c | 1,344$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 16c | 1,290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 31c | 1,258$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…da1bbacked No | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 9c | 1,132$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 34c | 1,054$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.18 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 28c | 1,044$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 21c | 1,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 77c | 987.52$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 68c | 882.29$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 839.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 8c | 820.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 13c | 769$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 45c | 694.35$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.13 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…a2a8backed No | 27c | 650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…61a1backed Yes | 73c | 510$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4e38backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…e351backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…d0f4backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 29c | 499.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes | 76c | 486.89$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 36c | 480.89$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e142backed Yes | 56c | 469.71$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 25c | 450$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 80c | 418.17$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed No | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d1…ff78backed No | 25c | 388$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…c9e5backed Yes | 70c | 380$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 36c | 371.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…e787backed Yes | 72c | 360$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…31acbacked No | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 16c | 322.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…ebcbbacked Yes | 73c | 311.25$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 24c | 309.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…49c2backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 80c | 298.75$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed No | 19c | 294.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked Yes | 58c | 280.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…2457backed Yes | 74c | 280$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ae…619cbacked Yes | 78c | 276.45$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 34c | 257.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…2a45backed Yes | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecb…4edcbacked Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…6b5cbacked Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…1667backed Yes | 64c | 240.39$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…fb42backed No | 14c | 221.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…24d3backed Yes | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…3a5cbacked Yes | 74c | 210$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked No | 25c | 201.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 14c | 195.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…4d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 80c | 177.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 175.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed No | 35c | 173$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 168.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 21c | 168.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 27c | 160.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes | 65c | 154.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…cd56backed Yes | 75c | 154.91$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e03…9212backed Yes | 65c | 154.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…8b53backed Yes | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…8d95backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 71c | 149.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…5e47backed Yes | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…d1adbacked Yes | 80c | 141.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…76ebbacked Yes | 71c | 140.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 38c | 139.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.