TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2139…4b34backed No1c15,293$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.248632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No1c5,610$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.56053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No21c4,972$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.537931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No4c4,720$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.83043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes76c4,254$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.8916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c3,781$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.221022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c4…af47backed Yes73c3,583$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed No4c3,510$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.21338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No19c3,287$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.631656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c0a…53c9backed No28c3,198$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+257.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed No5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5a…34d2backed Yes70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No4c1,882$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.757045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57ae…ccf7backed Yes67c1,779$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No19c1,583$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No5c1,499$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.465740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No19c1,448$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.98547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No13c1,437$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.951244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No22c1,344$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes16c1,290$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.052222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+108%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No31c1,258$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.273953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8655…da1bbacked No24c1,200$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No9c1,132$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2830319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No34c1,054$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.188127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No28c1,044$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.972737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No21c1,000$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.156033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes77c987.52$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.141225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes68c882.29$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c839.5$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No8c820.25$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.292835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No13c769$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.977129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes45c694.35$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.1322347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea7e…a2a8backed No27c650$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e2…61a1backed Yes73c510$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9776…4e38backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee72…e351backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa029…d0f4backed No22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No29c499.97$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.991850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes76c486.89$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed No36c480.89$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.659846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8712…e142backed Yes56c469.71$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No25c450$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.212619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes80c418.17$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.632850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9037…1621backed No32c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d1…ff78backed No25c388$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…c9e5backed Yes70c380$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No36c371.68$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd58f…e787backed Yes72c360$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b9…31acbacked No23c350$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed Yes16c322.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.512646.2%12 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.32per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x64b3…ebcbbacked Yes73c311.25$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No24c309.85$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+157.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca4…49c2backed Yes72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes80c298.75$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.751866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5239…64a4backed No19c294.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.531533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked Yes58c280.11$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.781338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff6f…2457backed Yes74c280$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ae…619cbacked Yes78c276.45$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.45560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed No34c257.42$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca8…2a45backed Yes72c251$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecb…4edcbacked Yes69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce3…9236backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0184…6b5cbacked Yes71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777b…08b0backed No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba64…1667backed Yes64c240.39$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…fb42backed No14c221.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd22…24d3backed Yes70c220$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked No9c210$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dca…3a5cbacked Yes74c210$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked No25c201.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.621464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5032029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No29c199.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes14c195.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+76.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcca1…4d8ebacked Yes73c180$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Yes80c177.11$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+165.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No22c175.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8c3…2a06backed No35c173$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.871233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No11c168.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No21c168.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4211336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No11c163$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.933735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No27c160.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes65c154.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+201.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd235…cd56backed Yes75c154.91$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e03…9212backed Yes65c154.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.12757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf191…8b53backed Yes66c150$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes65c150$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.151650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2552…8d95backed Yes74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No19c149.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes71c149.25$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a2…5e47backed Yes70c143.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4dd2…d1adbacked Yes80c141.4$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4914…76ebbacked Yes71c140.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.887100%7 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes76c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.621935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No38c139.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3841238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.