Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b3083134c9606d34134aa6f81a64b25fa97dc8924adb39ef49278f425865cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $654,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 48,884$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.6 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 10c | 26,421$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…e3a3backed Yes | 10c | 20,576$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…5babbacked Yes | 17c | 17,669$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…d90dbacked Yes | 6c | 16,023$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8fabacked Yes | 11c | 15,739$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 10c | 14,640$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 13,321$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.94 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Yes | 9c | 11,075$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…3cffbacked Yes | 10c | 10,535$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…9f01backed Yes | 10c | 9,854$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ef…1d20backed Yes | 6c | 8,148$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 9c | 7,627$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…b617backed Yes | 7c | 7,032$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcd…165cbacked Yes | 10c | 7,001$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 9c | 6,872$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 7c | 6,758$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked Yes | 9c | 6,065$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a33…79c0backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 5,810$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…5653backed Yes | 22c | 5,350$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…f235backed Yes | 11c | 5,245$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,050$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3549…67edbacked Yes | 8c | 5,005$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…8b8bbacked Yes | 21c | 4,604$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…79d3backed Yes | 9c | 4,504$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…745ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,211$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…1e00backed Yes | 23c | 4,094$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…a219backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 9c | 3,842$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3047…6053backed Yes | 25c | 3,803$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…0ed9backed Yes | 25c | 3,795$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…05a4backed Yes | 12c | 3,746$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,400$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 12c | 3,251$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.6 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 12c | 3,129$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…eaa1backed Yes | 7c | 3,116$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,085$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.22 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea3…42a4backed Yes | 10c | 3,030$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 10c | 2,959$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…ddf2backed Yes | 9c | 2,800$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…404abacked Yes | 34c | 2,780$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…39f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,485$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…4f0dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…d4f7backed Yes | 40c | 2,395$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…3213backed Yes | 40c | 2,384$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…e9bcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,303$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…733fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,298$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff84…c7b3backed Yes | 11c | 2,144$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…6629backed Yes | 9c | 2,115$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…c5f7backed Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,074$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 10c | 2,044$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2fe1backed Yes | 10c | 2,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…fce1backed Yes | 10c | 2,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…b836backed Yes | 10c | 2,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…bca8backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…d2f5backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…f93dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdeb…50dfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…ac2bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,996$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,890$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,872$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.71 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…94d9backed Yes | 9c | 1,823$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 13c | 1,797$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,739$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…d27ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,680$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,649$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…346cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,629$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…9c8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,552$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 9c | 1,543$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5797…2966backed Yes | 16c | 1,523$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…22adbacked Yes | 10c | 1,520$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a0…4eb5backed Yes | 9c | 1,479$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…170fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,418$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 11c | 1,393$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…5f6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,387$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc3…e22abacked Yes | 10c | 1,239$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,235$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d7…ade3backed Yes | 7c | 1,230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…9c89backed Yes | 8c | 1,224$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…879cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,210$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ba…71aebacked Yes | 13c | 1,142$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…c81ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,123$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb6…ea33backed Yes | 9c | 1,094$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…f93bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…ab9bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,025$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked Yes | 10c | 1,025$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b5…9eccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,007$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…58b8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…aa12backed Yes | 16c | 993.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…0a85backed Yes | 9c | 990.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.