TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95a3…046ebacked Yes5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick9cpaid+197.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d53…bac1backed Yes10c4,790$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No17c4,588$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,826.4321022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked No11c3,105$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.052035%7 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9867…5cc6backed Yes4c3,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0eb…2b5fbacked Yes15c2,288$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No65c2,228$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.8916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No8c1,818$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.357931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No13c1,676$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.216053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No39c1,649$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.723748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No29c1,573$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.5112649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b9a…83d6backed No35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…fe32backed Yes66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77a9…b20ebacked No34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9902100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick28cpaid+285.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdb7…d370backed Yes65c1,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ff…cb1cbacked No34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…cb73backed Yes66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No17c1,413$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.721656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4abf…1b97backed Yes76c1,320$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No24c1,299$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.772737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No64c1,264$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.88127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe241…29febacked Yes72c1,200$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed No25c1,150$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8581030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No25c1,138$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.38547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No17c1,094$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.762835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No9c1,055$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.1817850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4258…b969backed Yes75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75040%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes21c952$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.922222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+108%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ae…619cbacked Yes73c833.32$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.99560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d1…2c64backed Yes65c771.27$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5239…64a4backed Yes67c746.47$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.821533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a0…b92bbacked Yes76c724.88$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No15c717.23$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.924057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9037…1621backed No33c664.17$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0550…d522backed Yes77c651.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9965…7657backed No31c650.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No9c633.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.625650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No14c621.58$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.1211336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked No18c610.16$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.841338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf58…f091backed Yes35c609.58$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No23c609.17$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.1630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No14c599.69$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.131618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+34.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe464…25ecbacked No18c566.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.92560%3 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+200.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No26c543.34$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.342850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d9…a749backed Yes4c540.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed No36c513.55$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.739846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3856033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32510055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes69c491.31$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2312531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf7e…88d4backed No36c482.77$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.35100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+143.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x007d…f56abacked No10c480.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.553100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+584.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No18c450.12$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.2941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes78c443$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.899829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c429.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed7f…3a02backed No6c412.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+156.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49cb…8c3abacked No31c383.7$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.641936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes74c362.89$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.454645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fb…833abacked Yes4c359.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6880…8abebacked Yes36c335$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25f…87c0backed No30c332.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+73.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5888…b179backed Yes10c308.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No10c306.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.913043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23117355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1953023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e03…9212backed Yes67c298.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0632…879cbacked Yes58c297$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c3…2a06backed No45c285.72$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes70c283.79$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No17c250.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.947129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b30…7cf1backed Yes74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed No35c244.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.871752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed Yes21c242.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.732646.2%12 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.32per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xca2e…40c1backed Yes80c230.22$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c41…9b79backed No21c229.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes79c219.75$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.982850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No15c217.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc89f…695bbacked No24c210.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ff…7f9cbacked No23c210.28$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No19c208.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes67c207.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.426256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68e1…62cabacked Yes75c201.04$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b68…368dbacked Yes71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf191…8b53backed Yes67c200$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b4…acc7backed Yes80c198.28$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No21c197$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.763423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes73c196.21$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.791,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48db…0388backed Yes77c192.57$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c72…64e2backed Yes64c187$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes54c180$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…53c8backed Yes62c176.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.54650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47a1…489fbacked Yes80c174.26$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b68…cd17backed Yes73c172.84$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.01147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No25c154.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.058741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No27c154.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4236527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.512619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd087…b390backed No20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.51040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1145756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.