Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea888eb57a812e605ba4285079c15fcd57c66fe0254924c8622306333019242c

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 15, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,262 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfcb0…c865backed No	76c	1,550$1,176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.19	156	46.8%73 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	2c	1,357$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes	13c	733.79$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	10c	633.6$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.39	189	14.3%27 W · 162 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e657backed Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	223	47.5%106 W · 117 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	10c	480.26$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc875…02bdbacked Yes	48c	420.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No	70c	398.77$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa81e…e6fabacked Yes	62c	324.72$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes	11c	317.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a36…2916backed Yes	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No	62c	238$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.07	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	78c	228.39$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.99	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b65…791abacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb189…35ebbacked Yes	29c	226.92$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f74…a238backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0a…a897backed Yes	23c	214.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba43…ce4abacked Yes	7c	211.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f32…6a9dbacked Yes	12c	201.38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5239…64a4backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9090…f8dbbacked No	62c	160$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.8	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+145.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	15c	159.46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.13	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No	67c	154.45$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.67	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4d…0c75backed Yes	39c	153.85$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8700…e149backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes	22c	135.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes	10c	134.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	125	31.2%39 W · 86 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes	37c	123.17$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	98	29.6%29 W · 69 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed No	11c	121.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.23	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7254…e002backed Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	40cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8f8…10b3backed Yes	15c	110$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No	72c	110$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99cf…786dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…5707backed Yes	55c	92.39$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	11c	92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No	60c	84$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.4	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b68…cd17backed Yes	15c	81.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed No	51c	77.78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c1…b7d6backed Yes	15c	74.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe73c…0077backed Yes	30c	73.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1667…e2bcbacked Yes	42c	71.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…8adbbacked Yes	53c	71.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No	60c	62.61$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.82	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes	38c	60.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.07	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…fa8abacked Yes	39c	51.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No	78c	50.75$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	+10.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42b0…ff25backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Yes	33c	49.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No	65c	48.76$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.3	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…6fb6backed Yes	41c	48.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…efc1backed Yes	45c	44.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d6…c556backed Yes	37c	40.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba2…9f6ebacked Yes	41c	38.93$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No	60c	37.75$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.1	172	25%43 W · 129 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433a…08cebacked Yes	36c	35.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58fe…5db9backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No	65c	29.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	72	65.3%47 W · 25 L	+8.0wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+20%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02ba…21a7backed Yes	38c	28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0b…1e80backed No	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event