Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed3add94cc122aade943eb59d747bcfdc5068961ba27f1c2b1c4d1ff21d2dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked Yes | 15c | 4,340$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,982$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.09 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 57c | 1,630$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,345$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a33…79c0backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 68c | 883.45$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 73c | 773.48$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…148dbacked Yes | 13c | 750.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 586.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 75c | 483.84$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 20c | 415.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 46c | 414.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 15c | 335.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 42c | 333.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb62…1d05backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 75c | 287$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 49c | 286.91$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 19c | 268.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 75c | 261.74$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 259.08$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…9effbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 46c | 235.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked Yes | 22c | 229.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 53c | 215.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed No | 79c | 205.51$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 192.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 16c | 191.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed No | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 80c | 182.43$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed No | 40c | 167$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 17c | 157.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Yes | 25c | 157.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 69c | 145.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed No | 54c | 140$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 50c | 130.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…9b79backed Yes | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e142backed Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…e8a4backed Yes | 58c | 126.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 29c | 120.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…0144backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…c361backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 78c | 112.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb6…ea33backed Yes | 19c | 107.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…695bbacked No | 52c | 105.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…1f17backed Yes | 48c | 103.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 75c | 100.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…b179backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e657backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 13c | 96.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…489fbacked Yes | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 49c | 89.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…f03abacked Yes | 32c | 88.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 18c | 87.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 24c | 86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…2c76backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed No | 63c | 79.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 25c | 78.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…d3c2backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…0803backed Yes | 26c | 58.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…e1e6backed Yes | 51c | 53.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…1f7dbacked Yes | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 73c | 38.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 47c | 37.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…0bcebacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…8f84backed Yes | 62c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…f480backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…3374backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…b743backed No | 65c | 29.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…caa1backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b7…1d3dbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b0…4449backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…71e1backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…0e9dbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec8…95a6backed No | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…4313backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.