Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa7922207a35269725a4bb3e8267cbc7ecfad7fa559e10961de2193af2004d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked No | 37c | 8,541$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,355.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 5,880$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.47 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 28c | 5,600$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,008.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 11c | 4,366$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 17c | 3,983$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.73 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 8c | 3,515$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 49c | 2,292$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 53c | 2,149$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.34 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 55c | 2,047$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.71 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…4e38backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked No | 19c | 1,821$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +200.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…cb1cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…cb73backed No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 46c | 1,460$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.91 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 36c | 1,449$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked No | 28c | 1,436$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 15c | 1,411$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed No | 58c | 1,378$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 10c | 1,221$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.43 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…09d5backed Yes | 45c | 1,178$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…6811backed No | 4c | 1,130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +693.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 18c | 948.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked No | 21c | 900.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.58 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 863.99$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.19 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 36c | 825.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…88d4backed No | 31c | 801.06$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 52c | 775.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed No | 13c | 774.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 35c | 750.68$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 67c | 722.67$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.22 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…58b8backed Yes | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 16c | 640.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.12 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…ed85backed No | 16c | 626.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +526.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 51c | 599.96$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.98 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ae…619cbacked Yes | 76c | 595.06$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 26c | 571$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.47 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 17c | 557.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 2c | 554.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.99 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…4bf4backed Yes | 67c | 533.52$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 19c | 512.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 60c | 502.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 67c | 484.81$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 15c | 472.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.33 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 9c | 460.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 9c | 451.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +250.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…9effbacked Yes | 35c | 434.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked No | 31c | 428.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 48c | 420.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 19c | 399.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.95 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 11c | 395.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 393.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.86 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 9c | 393.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 5c | 385.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 47c | 365.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc35…c475backed Yes | 45c | 364.65$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 32c | 359$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.58 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed No | 45c | 336.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…235dbacked Yes | 17c | 324.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…cdbebacked No | 27c | 323.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 77c | 319.17$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed No | 14c | 311.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…62cabacked Yes | 64c | 310.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…9cb5backed No | 17c | 302.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +504.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…49fdbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…ecacbacked No | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 67c | 298.68$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 18c | 296$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…0405backed Yes | 78c | 289.88$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d2…6303backed No | 13c | 289.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +655.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…0079backed No | 55c | 260.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 50c | 258.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…17e8backed Yes | 65c | 255.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 44c | 255.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 80c | 250.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 59c | 250$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…ccbebacked No | 43c | 233.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…a219backed Yes | 61c | 232.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 45c | 220.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 79c | 220$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes | 70c | 216.46$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…3b8fbacked Yes | 51c | 212.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…d3debacked No | 46c | 209.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…f7a4backed Yes | 48c | 207.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes | 68c | 206$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…4ffcbacked No | 18c | 204.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…6ddebacked No | 13c | 204.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +423.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 70c | 201.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 80c | 196.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 9c | 190.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 38c | 189.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 7c | 186.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 18c | 186.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 36c | 181.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…6b8ebacked Yes | 44c | 177.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 68c | 175.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 52c | 174.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 52c | 164.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.