TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f62…02efbacked No37c8,541$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,355.871442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No17c5,880$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,881.4721022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No28c5,600$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,008.253053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No11c4,366$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No17c3,983$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.7312649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No8c3,515$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.591618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+34.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No49c2,292$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.023748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No53c2,149$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.3417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes55c2,047$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.7122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9776…4e38backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe464…25ecbacked No19c1,821$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.58560%3 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+200.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58ff…cb1cbacked Yes41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…cb73backed No59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No46c1,460$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.918547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b1…8887backed No36c1,449$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.46100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+109.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ac7…6b3abacked No28c1,436$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.591361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No15c1,411$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.17850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+157.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9037…1621backed No58c1,378$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.85850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No10c1,221$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.432075%15 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+78.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc93b…09d5backed Yes45c1,178$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad1…6811backed No4c1,130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+693.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes18c948.37$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.975740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked No21c900.58$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.582516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes79c863.99$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.1917355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes36c825.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf7e…88d4backed No31c801.06$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.115100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+143.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No52c775.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578e…c940backed No13c774.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.83540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+152.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes35c750.68$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.431650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No67c722.67$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2216854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1de2…58b8backed Yes46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No16c640.5$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.126033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33a…ed85backed No16c626.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+526.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No51c599.96$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.985650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ae…619cbacked Yes76c595.06$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No26c571$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.4741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked No17c557.25$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.662133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No2c554.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.9911336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3389…4bf4backed Yes67c533.52$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No19c512.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.130319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb152…8315backed Yes60c502.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc445…d6aebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid+316.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes67c484.81$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No15c472.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.338453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No9c460.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.192751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5827…69dcbacked No9c451.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+250.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca9…9effbacked Yes35c434.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49cb…8c3abacked No31c428.37$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.371936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes48c420.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No19c399.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.954953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed No11c395.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c393.95$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed No9c393.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.79450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+227.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No5c385.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No47c365.17$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.212531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc35…c475backed Yes45c364.65$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No32c359$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab64…d070backed No45c336.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.06580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+167.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e50…235dbacked Yes17c324.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7b…cdbebacked No27c323.15$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes77c319.17$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.75850%29 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1786…5b47backed No14c311.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.942133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…62cabacked Yes64c310.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x207e…9cb5backed No17c302.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+504.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef9…49fdbacked Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e4…ecacbacked No20c299.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+199.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No67c298.68$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.891850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No18c296$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.438632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefcd…0405backed Yes78c289.88$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.91366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d2…6303backed No13c289.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+655.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe51e…0079backed No55c260.18$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed No50c258.42$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.463644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x308a…17e8backed Yes65c255.95$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No44c255.29$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.431566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes80c250.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes59c250$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1473528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1a…ccbebacked No43c233.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.69520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bc…a219backed Yes61c232.93$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed Yes45c220.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes79c220$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes70c216.46$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.52366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…3b8fbacked Yes51c212.81$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+114.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…d3debacked No46c209.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd0…f7a4backed Yes48c207.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes68c206$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe95f…4ffcbacked No18c204.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+156.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56d5…6ddebacked No13c204.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.233100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+423.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes70c201.65$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.336256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15032029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…8abebacked Yes80c196.09$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No9c190.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.053423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No38c189.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.992835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No7c186.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.172835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No18c186.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9510749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes36c181.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3080…6b8ebacked Yes44c177.56$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.84633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes68c175.29$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes52c174.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9610834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No24c166.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.674122%9 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No52c164.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8837740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.