Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ece8859b8e50e8202124faa042a99071e29d19a636be7f2cbacc4e68f3fa36e

Rebuilt 53 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 15, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda26…4386backed Yes	78c	770.03$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27a9…e43dbacked Yes	46c	725.93$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.73	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No	61c	704$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.6	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No	53c	699.98$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.99	156	46.8%73 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No	57c	643.79$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.45	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes	65c	639.5$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.53	98	46.9%46 W · 52 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed Yes	78c	637.8$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed Yes	36c	615.77$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.47	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	41c	602.48$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.05	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No	19c	578.36$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.76	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Yes	44c	550$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbf…1f17backed Yes	49c	508.91$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No	22c	500$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x341b…0eddbacked Yes	62c	489.89$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.79	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	25cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ac7…6b3abacked No	71c	449.63$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.25	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.20per pick	41cpaid	+58%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes	4c	423.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	124	4.8%6 W · 118 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No	65c	393.04$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.41	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+22.8wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+56%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x615b…7958backed No	54c	377.52$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.52	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc445…d6aebacked Yes	4c	350$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+316.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes	60c	343.91$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.91	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes	57c	315.79$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	39c	312$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.67	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5844…3b8fbacked Yes	65c	307.4$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	+114.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes	57c	296.8$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.4	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes	68c	293.44$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.63	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.1wins	-0.35per pick	46cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa16d…7f0bbacked Yes	75c	269.52$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes	57c	263.58$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.56	98	29.6%29 W · 69 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39ef…c756backed Yes	22c	260$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5217…836fbacked No	42c	254$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.06	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	41c	246.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.56	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	60c	228.84$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.68	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No	50c	214.48$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.52	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4821…aaaabacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No	56c	197.1$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.7	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.8wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes	43c	186.32$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.44	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc151…baddbacked Yes	50c	186.27$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+36%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c41…9b79backed No	40c	170$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.1	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	39c	166.37$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.08	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No	56c	152.29$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.29	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	61c	149.44$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.88	126	19.8%25 W · 101 L	-8.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No	39c	147.5$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.82	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes	45c	147.27$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.57	125	31.2%39 W · 86 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1f…a2d4backed Yes	39c	139.16$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes	46c	133.53$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.78	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…a219backed Yes	38c	130.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.53	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No	35c	121.17$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.76	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes	24c	117.63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe438…9471backed Yes	65c	110.17$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	43c	109.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.7	71	28.2%20 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf7e…88d4backed No	51c	105$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.05	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.8wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+143.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	22cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…3dd4backed No	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd766…71e1backed Yes	66c	99.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes	43c	98.14$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.57	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc35…c475backed Yes	43c	92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a4…f9aebacked No	56c	91.09$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.91	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.32per pick	48cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…0350backed No	41c	90$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.1	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes	17c	85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed Yes	65c	80.26$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.17	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No	33c	80.15$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.7	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d52…9b62backed Yes	38c	78.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes	64c	77.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No	40c	76$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…87f9backed Yes	37c	76$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes	56c	75$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3110…e85abacked Yes	64c	68.62$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes	61c	68$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.48	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.16per pick	62cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked No	35c	67.6$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.74	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ee…40fdbacked Yes	45c	65.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	+19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…3934backed Yes	77c	64.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No	38c	64.77$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.16	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No	43c	62.14$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.63	286	36.7%105 W · 181 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes	20c	61.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	43c	57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf998…7d20backed Yes	57c	53.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad1b…3840backed Yes	56c	53.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	44c	53.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes	57c	52.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9810…4925backed Yes	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Yes	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba25…aa2cbacked No	21c	50$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0eb…c454backed Yes	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95f…4ffcbacked No	29c	48.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.16	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.36per pick	30cpaid	+156.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No	64c	47.9$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	+10.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes	43c	47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	54c	45.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	189	14.3%27 W · 162 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88be…323cbacked Yes	67c	44.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+170.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf926…60edbacked Yes	38c	44.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa832…179bbacked Yes	75c	44$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	71cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5026…c4f3backed No	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	49c	41.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b68…368dbacked Yes	60c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked No	53c	38.02$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.02	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	50c	37.59$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.98	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38b8…d9f5backed Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event